-USDA World Rice Trade Outlook

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 TEXT--USDA World Rice Trade Outlook

  
WASHINGTON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Following is the U.S. Agriculture
Department's global rice situation outlook published by the Foreign
Agricultural Service on Friday. Note: for full outlook tables, double click
on <USDA07>. 

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK  

Global rice trade in 2000 is forecast to drop only fractionally as greater
imports by the Middle East and Latin America nearly offset weaker Asian
imports. U.S. exports are expected to increase 9 percent as a result of
record supplies and lower prices. Global prices, which have declined in
1999, will be further pressured by large supplies in nearly all exporting
countries. Global production, consumption and ending stocks are all
projected to climb to records in 1999/2000, largely due to increases in
China and India, the two largest producers. 

Global trade in 1999 is up this month because of a forecast increase in
exports by China, Thailand and Vietnam, three of the largest exporters.
After a sharp decline in early October, Asian prices have remained
relatively stable for the past month. However, there is little expectation
of price strength due to stagnant world trade, further import restrictions
by Indonesia, and bumper harvests in many Asian countries this fall. Despite
continued drops in the World Market Price, U.S. rice export prices have
declined little over the past five weeks. 

2000 Trade Changes 

Selected Exporters 

India down 700,000 tons to 1.5 million due to expected uncompetitive export
prices for non-basmati as a result of 

the high domestic minimum support price for paddy rice.  

China up 650,000 tons to 2.8 million based on an estimated rise in production.  

Thailand and Vietnam both up 100,000 tons to 5.8 million and 4.1 million.  

Selected Importers 

Brazil up 100,000 tons to 1.1 million due to forecast lower production in
1999/2000.  

North Korea down 100,000 tons to 250,000 based on an estimated increase in
production.  

Nigeria up 50,000 tons to 850,000 due to an estimated increase in parboiled
rice imports.  

Cote d'Ivoire down 50,000 tons to 500,000 due to greater expected production.  

1999 Trade Changes 

Selected Exporters 

China up 500,000 tons to 2.5 million based on strong exports to date and
larger production.  

Thailand up 400,000 tons to 6.1 million based on larger exports to date.  

Vietnam up 200,000 tons to 4.2 million based on continued stronger exports.  

Burma down 125,000 tons to 75,000 due to smaller-than-expected exports
caused by domestic rice price policy. 

Selected Importers 

Indonesia up 700,000 tons to 3.9 million, despite import restrictions.  

Nigeria up 100,000 tons to 900,000 based on larger parboiled imports from
Thailand.  

Mexico up 35,000 tons to 360,000 due to strong pace of imports to date. 

17:54 11-12-99