AFP-Myanmar motives shrouded in dou

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Subject: AFP-Myanmar motives shrouded in doubt with World Bank offer

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Tuesday, November 16 5:23 PM SGT=20

Myanmar motives shrouded in doubt with World Bank offer
BANGKOK, Nov 16 (AFP) -=20
Myanmar's motives in inviting a World Bank team to discuss its limping =
economy were shrouded in doubt Tuesday, as analysts debated if the move =
was merely a ploy to ease foreign pressure on the junta.

While genuine dialogue with the World Bank would indicate a new spirit =
of openness, its validity would hinge on the generals' willingness to =
act on World Bank recommendations, observers said.

The invitation was made public after a highly critical World Bank report =
leaked to a newspaper warned that Myanmar's economy was on the verge of =
collapse, submerged in debt, choked by inflation and starved of foreign =
investment.

Extracts reported by the International Herald Tribune said the military =
must promote political reform to stave off a systemic banking crisis.

Myanmar expert Mohan Malik of Australia's School of International =
Defence Studies gave a measured reaction to the junta's invitation, =
warning it had a history of adopting apparently conciliatory stances =
while retreating behind entrenched positions.

"From time to time, the regime gives out encouraging signs, but it is =
often a device to ease Western pressure and then they carry on doing =
what they have been doing."

Only genuine action could demonstrate the junta's sincerity," he said.

"Political reform -- that is the bottom line, if they do not do it then =
everything else is secondary."

Potential points of contention between Myanmar and the World Bank appear =
on to centre on the causes of the economic malaise.=20

Myanmar ministers, who could not be reached Tuesday, say their problems =
lie in an investment drought and Western trade restrictions imposed to =
punish alleged human rights abuses.

The World Bank report puts the blame squarely on the military dominated =
state apparatus and tightly controlled economy.

Myanmar analyst Sunai Pasak, from Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University =
sees little hope the junta will admit mistakes.

"There will be no genuine response from the Burmese junta -- there will =
be just a ploy to engage with the World Bank," he said.

They might introduce some kind of 'structure of reform' but it is very =
problematic how far they would go."

Sunai said Myanmar had failed in an attempt to emulate China, one of the =
few states with close links to Yangon, by giving economic development =
priority over political reform.

"It does not have the fundamentals to use as a stimulus for economic =
growth as China did," he said.

World Bank sources have told AFP that any new initiative in Myanmar =
would first aim to build confidence similar to the bank's efforts in =
North Korea. There is little prospect of substantial aid being granted =
early in the process.

Observers in Yangon detect no sign the junta is ready to embrace a =
purported aid for reform payoff mooted by diplomats as a "carrot and =
stick" drive for reform last year.

"I think there is a sense in which none of the leaders here think they =
have done a bad job with the economy," said one political observer.

Ministers told AFP recently that Myanmar looked towards the outside =
world for help but was prepared to go it alone and hinted it could =
endure a subsistance level of existence.

Signs of Myanmar's economic morrass are obvious on the streets of Yangon =
where inflation runs at around 30 percent and the beleagured kyat =
currency trades on the black market at 350 to the dollar compared to the =
official rate of around five.

Power cuts are frequent plunging streets into darkness at night.

Copies of the scathing World Bank report were delivered secretly to =
Yangon's top generals and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi by a World =
Bank envoy accompanying a special representative of United Nations chief =
Kofi Annan last month.

The study was based on an examination of Myanmar's economy that had =
reportedly received "unusual cooperation" from the junta.

A Myanmar spokesman told AFP Monday the government had "invited the =
World Bank representatives for further discussions."

"For the time being there is no comment to give on the World Bank's =
findings," he added.


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<P><B>Tuesday, November 16</B> 5:23 PM SGT=20
<H2>Myanmar motives shrouded in doubt with World Bank offer</H2>BANGKOK, =
Nov 16=20
(AFP) -=20
<P>Myanmar's motives in inviting a World Bank team to discuss its =
limping=20
economy were shrouded in doubt Tuesday, as analysts debated if the move =
was=20
merely a ploy to ease foreign pressure on the junta.</P>
<P>While genuine dialogue with the World Bank would indicate a new =
spirit of=20
openness, its validity would hinge on the generals' willingness to act =
on World=20
Bank recommendations, observers said.</P>
<P>The invitation was made public after a highly critical World Bank =
report=20
leaked to a newspaper warned that Myanmar's economy was on the verge of=20
collapse, submerged in debt, choked by inflation and starved of foreign=20
investment.</P>
<P>Extracts reported by the International Herald Tribune said the =
military must=20
promote political reform to stave off a systemic banking crisis.</P>
<P>Myanmar expert Mohan Malik of Australia's School of International =
Defence=20
Studies gave a measured reaction to the junta's invitation, warning it =
had a=20
history of adopting apparently conciliatory stances while retreating =
behind=20
entrenched positions.</P>
<P>"From time to time, the regime gives out encouraging signs, but it is =
often a=20
device to ease Western pressure and then they carry on doing what they =
have been=20
doing."</P>
<P>Only genuine action could demonstrate the junta's sincerity," he =
said.</P>
<P>"Political reform -- that is the bottom line, if they do not do it =
then=20
everything else is secondary."</P>
<P>Potential points of contention between Myanmar and the World Bank =
appear on=20
to centre on the causes of the economic malaise. </P>
<P>Myanmar ministers, who could not be reached Tuesday, say their =
problems lie=20
in an investment drought and Western trade restrictions imposed to =
punish=20
alleged human rights abuses.</P>
<P>The World Bank report puts the blame squarely on the military =
dominated state=20
apparatus and tightly controlled economy.</P>
<P>Myanmar analyst Sunai Pasak, from Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University =
sees=20
little hope the junta will admit mistakes.</P>
<P>"There will be no genuine response from the Burmese junta -- there =
will be=20
just a ploy to engage with the World Bank," he said.</P>
<P>They might introduce some kind of 'structure of reform' but it is =
very=20
problematic how far they would go."</P>
<P>Sunai said Myanmar had failed in an attempt to emulate China, one of =
the few=20
states with close links to Yangon, by giving economic development =
priority over=20
political reform.</P>
<P>"It does not have the fundamentals to use as a stimulus for economic =
growth=20
as China did," he said.</P>
<P>World Bank sources have told AFP that any new initiative in Myanmar =
would=20
first aim to build confidence similar to the bank's efforts in North =
Korea.=20
There is little prospect of substantial aid being granted early in the=20
process.</P>
<P>Observers in Yangon detect no sign the junta is ready to embrace a =
purported=20
aid for reform payoff mooted by diplomats as a "carrot and stick" drive =
for=20
reform last year.</P>
<P>"I think there is a sense in which none of the leaders here think =
they have=20
done a bad job with the economy," said one political observer.</P>
<P>Ministers told AFP recently that Myanmar looked towards the outside =
world for=20
help but was prepared to go it alone and hinted it could endure a =
subsistance=20
level of existence.</P>
<P>Signs of Myanmar's economic morrass are obvious on the streets of =
Yangon=20
where inflation runs at around 30 percent and the beleagured kyat =
currency=20
trades on the black market at 350 to the dollar compared to the official =
rate of=20
around five.</P>
<P>Power cuts are frequent plunging streets into darkness at night.</P>
<P>Copies of the scathing World Bank report were delivered secretly to =
Yangon's=20
top generals and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi by a World Bank =
envoy=20
accompanying a special representative of United Nations chief Kofi Annan =
last=20
month.</P>
<P>The study was based on an examination of Myanmar's economy that had=20
reportedly received "unusual cooperation" from the junta.</P>
<P>A Myanmar spokesman told AFP Monday the government had "invited the =
World=20
Bank representatives for further discussions."</P>
<P>"For the time being there is no comment to give on the World Bank's=20
findings," he added.</P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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