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ANALYSIS-Japan's Myanmar moves refl



Subject: ANALYSIS-Japan's Myanmar moves reflect China worry 

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ANALYSIS-Japan's Myanmar moves reflect China worry=20
01:51 a.m. Dec 08, 1999 Eastern=20
By David Brunnstrom=20

BANGKOK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - High-level contacts between Japan and Myanmar =
reflect growing concerns both in Tokyo and Southeast Asia about China's =
influence in the military-ruled country, diplomats and analysts say.=20

The concern appears two-fold -- that Myanmar's chronic economic weakness =
make it a security liability should China ever become expansionist in =
future and that Japan risks losing long-term influence to Beijing in a =
country with substantial economic potential.=20

Like Western powers, Japan wants democratic progress in Myanmar, but =
analysts say strategic and economic considerations remain paramount and =
Tokyo is looking for ways to help stabilise Yangon's economy and improve =
conditions for Japanese investment.=20

Tokyo's worries prompted the first meeting of a Japanese prime minister =
and his Myanmar counterpart in 15 years when Keizo Obuchi met Senior =
General Than Shwe in Manila late last month. This was followed by a =
visit to Yangon by Japan's former premier Ryutaro Hashimoto, Obuchi's =
senior foreign policy adviser.=20

Hashimoto met senior members of the ruling military council, including =
Senior General Than Shwe, to discuss Obuchi's offer to help should =
Myanmar embark on serious economic reform.=20

Toshiro Kudo, a researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies, a =
semi-governmental Japan think tank, said Myanmar had grown in Japan's =
strategic consciousness since it joined the Association of South East =
Asian Nations in 1997.=20

``Myanmar used not to be considered so strategically important, but it's =
getting more and more so when it comes to formulating diplomatic policy. =
It also has significant resources and Japan doesn't want to give up =
economic interests to China.''=20

JAPAN OBLIGED TO BE PRAGMATIC=20

A European diplomat in Yangon said Japan, given its geography, felt =
obliged to take a more pragmatic approach through ``constructive =
engagement'' than Europe or the United States, which use sanctions to =
try to push Myanmar to democratise.=20

``They are worried that if this country gets weaker, China might take it =
as an opportunity to do something -- ASEAN and Japan take this as a real =
danger,'' he said.=20

Already northern Myanmar was heavily dependent economically on China, =
which imports more and more of Myanmar's rice.=20

``Of course, at the moment China is not going to take any big steps that =
would provoke international reaction, but say this country is in a mess =
and cannot peacefully ship rice to China, I could imagine a scenario =
China had to get rice directly.=20

``I believe the Japanese see the danger in the middle to long-term and =
they see a relatively stable Myanmar as a better guarantee against =
Chinese temptation,'' the diplomat said.=20

Even so, analysts do not foresee a full-scale resumption of Japanese =
aid, suspended after Myanmar's military killed thousands to crush =
pro-democracy uprising in 1988, any time soon.=20

Obuchi told Than Shwe it would be easier for Japan to provide aid if =
there were ``visible'' signs of democratic change.=20

A Japanese diplomat said this could include resumption of dialogue =
between the generals and Aung San Suu Kyi, Nobel Peace prize winning =
leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD).=20

Myanmar appeared to seek credibility points when it told Hashimoto it =
planned to reopen college campuses closed for much of the past decade to =
prevent student activism.=20

NO RAPPROCHEMENT IN SIGHT=20

But it has made clear no rapprochement with the opposition is in the =
offing, by reviving hardline rhetoric denouncing opponents as =
``traitors'' and ``axe handles of neo-colonialists.''=20

An Asian diplomat was not filled with optimism.=20

``There seems no way out of the Myanmar problem. We've been trying very =
hard for the past 10 years to engage Myanmar but we haven't succeeded. =
We are trying to continue the process, but there seems to be no change =
in the NLD and military stances.=20

``They are totally confronting each other and it's very hard to imagine =
any substantial change could be made in the future.''=20

The Japanese diplomat said the most likely result of Japan's initiative =
was a continuation of Japan's policy of providing relatively small-scale =
aid on a case-by-case basis. This could include Japanese expertise to =
assist economic reform.=20

Japan wants Myanmar to cut trade tariffs and reform its foreign =
investment environment to make it more attractive to Japanese firms, =
many of which have lost money in the country.=20

Kudo could not see significant Japanese money going in without firm =
commitments to reform obstacles to progress, including the parallel =
exchange rate and moribund state sector.=20

Apart from political considerations, there were practical difficulties, =
including the need for Myanmar to repay past loans. Kudo said over a =
third of Myanmar's $5 billion foreign debt was owed to Japan.=20


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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><FONT =
size=3D+1><STRONG>ANALYSIS-Japan's Myanmar=20
moves reflect China worry</STRONG></FONT> <BR>01:51 a.m. Dec 08, 1999 =
Eastern=20
<P><STRONG>By David Brunnstrom</STRONG>=20
<P>BANGKOK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - High-level contacts between Japan and =
Myanmar=20
reflect growing concerns both in Tokyo and Southeast Asia about China's=20
influence in the military-ruled country, diplomats and analysts say.=20
<P>The concern appears two-fold -- that Myanmar's chronic economic =
weakness make=20
it a security liability should China ever become expansionist in future =
and that=20
Japan risks losing long-term influence to Beijing in a country with =
substantial=20
economic potential.=20
<P>Like Western powers, Japan wants democratic progress in Myanmar, but =
analysts=20
say strategic and economic considerations remain paramount and Tokyo is =
looking=20
for ways to help stabilise Yangon's economy and improve conditions for =
Japanese=20
investment.=20
<P>Tokyo's worries prompted the first meeting of a Japanese prime =
minister and=20
his Myanmar counterpart in 15 years when Keizo Obuchi met Senior General =
Than=20
Shwe in Manila late last month. This was followed by a visit to Yangon =
by=20
Japan's former premier Ryutaro Hashimoto, Obuchi's senior foreign policy =

adviser.=20
<P>Hashimoto met senior members of the ruling military council, =
including Senior=20
General Than Shwe, to discuss Obuchi's offer to help should Myanmar =
embark on=20
serious economic reform.=20
<P>Toshiro Kudo, a researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies, =
a=20
semi-governmental Japan think tank, said Myanmar had grown in Japan's =
strategic=20
consciousness since it joined the Association of South East Asian =
Nations in=20
1997.=20
<P>``Myanmar used not to be considered so strategically important, but =
it's=20
getting more and more so when it comes to formulating diplomatic policy. =
It also=20
has significant resources and Japan doesn't want to give up economic =
interests=20
to China.''=20
<P><STRONG>JAPAN OBLIGED TO BE PRAGMATIC</STRONG>=20
<P>A European diplomat in Yangon said Japan, given its geography, felt =
obliged=20
to take a more pragmatic approach through ``constructive engagement'' =
than=20
Europe or the United States, which use sanctions to try to push Myanmar =
to=20
democratise.=20
<P>``They are worried that if this country gets weaker, China might take =
it as=20
an opportunity to do something -- ASEAN and Japan take this as a real =
danger,''=20
he said.=20
<P>Already northern Myanmar was heavily dependent economically on China, =
which=20
imports more and more of Myanmar's rice.=20
<P>``Of course, at the moment China is not going to take any big steps =
that=20
would provoke international reaction, but say this country is in a mess =
and=20
cannot peacefully ship rice to China, I could imagine a scenario China =
had to=20
get rice directly.=20
<P>``I believe the Japanese see the danger in the middle to long-term =
and they=20
see a relatively stable Myanmar as a better guarantee against Chinese=20
temptation,'' the diplomat said.=20
<P>Even so, analysts do not foresee a full-scale resumption of Japanese =
aid,=20
suspended after Myanmar's military killed thousands to crush =
pro-democracy=20
uprising in 1988, any time soon.=20
<P>Obuchi told Than Shwe it would be easier for Japan to provide aid if =
there=20
were ``visible'' signs of democratic change.=20
<P>A Japanese diplomat said this could include resumption of dialogue =
between=20
the generals and Aung San Suu Kyi, Nobel Peace prize winning leader of =
the=20
National League for Democracy (NLD).=20
<P>Myanmar appeared to seek credibility points when it told Hashimoto it =
planned=20
to reopen college campuses closed for much of the past decade to prevent =
student=20
activism.=20
<P><STRONG>NO RAPPROCHEMENT IN SIGHT</STRONG>=20
<P>But it has made clear no rapprochement with the opposition is in the =
offing,=20
by reviving hardline rhetoric denouncing opponents as ``traitors'' and =
``axe=20
handles of neo-colonialists.''=20
<P>An Asian diplomat was not filled with optimism.=20
<P>``There seems no way out of the Myanmar problem. We've been trying =
very hard=20
for the past 10 years to engage Myanmar but we haven't succeeded. We are =
trying=20
to continue the process, but there seems to be no change in the NLD and =
military=20
stances.=20
<P>``They are totally confronting each other and it's very hard to =
imagine any=20
substantial change could be made in the future.''=20
<P>The Japanese diplomat said the most likely result of Japan's =
initiative was a=20
continuation of Japan's policy of providing relatively small-scale aid =
on a=20
case-by-case basis. This could include Japanese expertise to assist =
economic=20
reform.=20
<P>Japan wants Myanmar to cut trade tariffs and reform its foreign =
investment=20
environment to make it more attractive to Japanese firms, many of which =
have=20
lost money in the country.=20
<P>Kudo could not see significant Japanese money going in without firm=20
commitments to reform obstacles to progress, including the parallel =
exchange=20
rate and moribund state sector.=20
<P>Apart from political considerations, there were practical =
difficulties,=20
including the need for Myanmar to repay past loans. Kudo said over a =
third of=20
Myanmar's $5 billion foreign debt was owed to Japan.=20
</P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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