Japan harps on democratization

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JAPAN HARPS ON DEMOCRATIZATION

Staying engaged with Myanmar

By HISANE MASAKI

Staff Writer

Myanmar is a predominantly Buddhist, impoverished country that would br =
cheered by any outside aid. But if its military rulers had expected =
early Christmas presents from Japan -- the world`s largest aid donor -- =
they may now be feeling deeply disappointed.

Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi met with Than Shwe, the top leader of the =
Myanmar military regime, in Manila on Nov. 28 on the fringes of the =
meetings between top leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian =
Nations and also from Japan, China and South Korea.

It was the first time since the military took power in Myanmar -- or =
Burma, as the country was once referred to -- in a 1988 coup that a =
Japanese prime minister had held official bilateral talks with a top =
leader of the Myanmar military regime.

Three days later, former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto visited Yangon =
on a mission organized by a nongovernmental Japanese organization and =
met with Than Shwe, chairman of the State Peace and Development =
Council(SPDC), as the military junta now calls itself. Hashimoto =
currently serves as Obuchi`s supreme foreign policy adviser.=20

But neither Obuchi nor Hashimoto offered any fresh economic aid -- =
except a minuscule amount of technical cooperation to help the Southeast =
Asian country promote its economic reforms. Separately, they instead =
pressed the SPDC chairman to move toward democratization.

In their 20-minute meeting, Obuchi told Than Shwe that Myanmar needs to =
make progress on democratization "step by step"and "in a visible =
manner," although achieving a full democratization overnight may be =
impossible, according to Japanese officials.

While claiming that the SPDC is making democratization efforts, Than =
Shwe apparently sought a Japanese understanding of and patiencewith the =
military regime`s policy, citing an old Myanmar proverb that a village =
will not be in sight until a traveler reaches the end of the road, =
according to the officials.

Hashimoto`s blunt words

Hashimoto was more specific on the democratization issue. He was quoted =
as telling Than Shwe that the military regime should completely lift a =
decree shutting down universities in Myanmar -- a measure taken to =
pre-empt student prodemocracy activities - as soon as possible and that =
the role of ensuring security should be transferred from the military to =
police.

The military rulers rolled out the red carpet for Hashimoto. Than Shwe =
himself hosted a dinner for the former Japanese premier, an honor =
usually reserved for foreign heads of state or government on official =
visits.=20

The last time the two had met was at the end of 1997 in a summit in =
Kuala Lumpur, when Hashimoto was still a prime minister. During his =
recent Yangon visit, no officials accompanied Hashimoto.

Although Than Shwe broached specific proposals for official economic =
cooperation between Myanmar and Japan, Hashimoto was quoted as reminding =
his host that he was there only in a private capacity and not as =
Obuchi`s adviser. Bluntly, he said that those proposals should be =
discussed only between government officials of the two countries.=20

Minoru Kiryu, a professor of economics at Osaka Sangyo University, said =
that the SPDC had not expected Than Shwe`s recent talks with Obuchi and =
Hashimoto alone to bring about a breakthrough in stalled official =
economic cooperation between the two countries.=20

"They(Myanmar officials) seem to be very happy with those contacts =
because they expect high-level political contacts will pave the way for =
a full-scale inflow of official Japanese aid sometime in the future," =
said Kiryu, a leading Japanese expert on Myanmar affairs.=20

In recent years, the United States and other industrialized countries in =
Europe have toughened economic and other sanctions against Myanmar for =
its military regime`s alleged violations of democratic principles and =
human rights, including the continued crackdown on the prodemocracy =
movement led by Suu Kyi. She was released from house arrest in 1995 and =
Japan was widely credited for having a key role in persuading the regime =
to take that step.

In addition to the economic sanctions, the Asian economic crisis that =
erupted in 1997 dealt a serious blow to Myanmar economy, which saw a =
sharp decline in foreign investment, especially from its fellow ASEAN =
members.

The collapse in May 1998 of Presidents Suharto`s regime in Indonesia =
apparently was another serious setback for the SPDC, which was widely =
believed to have seen the Suharto regime as a political model for =
Myanmar. Despite all these, the council has shown no clear signs of =
budging on the democratization issue.

Amid these circumstances, the Obuchi-Than Shwe meeting in Manila and =
Hashimoto`s visit to Yangon raised some eyebrows in the U.S. But Tokyo =
insists that they never represented a change in its Myanmar policy.

"If we do not meet and talk (with Myanmar officials), we cannot =
encourage favorable changes in the country," a senior Foreign Ministry =
official said, requesting that he not be named.

While calling for improvements in the protection of democratic =
principles and human rights in Myanmar, Japan has pursued a policy of =
"constructive engagement" with the Southeast Asian country, instead of =
isolating it internationally.

Although Obuchi told Than Shwe in Manila that Japan was ready to provide =
technical cooperation to help Myanmar develop its human resources, the =
offer itself did not mean any deviation from Tokyo`s official aid policy =
toward the postcoup Myanmar.

Since the 1988 coup, Japan has suspended fresh yen loans and =
grant-in-aid except for what it regards as humanitarian purposes. But =
small amounts of technical cooperation, such as inviting economic =
trainees, have remained intact.=20

Nevertheless, the administration of President Bill Clinton, the most =
virulent in criticizing the Myanmar military regime, is believed to be =
unhappy about the even small amounts of technical cooperation flowing =
from Tokyo into Yangon.=20

Country report blocked

The World Bank sent a fact-finding economic mission to Yangon in June =
and has drafted a country report on the Myanmar economy based on the =
mission`s findings. But the Clinton administration is putting political =
pressure on the bank to refrain from finalizing the draft country =
report, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the matter.=20

The Clinton administration fears that once the report gets ready, the =
World Bank may move to initiate some economic aid, including technical =
cooperation, for the Southeast Asian country, the sources said.

It is very unlikely that the World Bank will extend a large amount of =
aid to Myanmar in the foreseeable future despite strong U.S. objections. =
The U.S. is the largest financial contributor to the bank and wields =
enormous political influence over its business.

But Japan believes that the time has come for the World Bank to initiate =
at least technical cooperation to help Myanmar reform its economic =
structure.

This question pitted Japan and the U.S. against each other in late =
October, when their representatives and those of other industrialized =
countries, including Britain and Australia, met secretly in New York =
together with United Nations officials, the sources said. The U.S. =
vehemently opposed the idea of technical cooperation.=20

Although Tokyo strongly denies any shift in its Myanmar policy, the =
meetings with Than Shwe apparently reflect a government concern about a =
possible sudden change in the U.S. policy toward the Southeast Asian =
country, according to a person familiar with the Japanese government`s =
thinking.=20

This person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the =
government is "feeling pressed" to do something more to advance its =
relations with Yangon because it believes that theU.S. may change -- or =
at least ease -- its sanctions policy toward Myanmar after presidential =
elections in November next year.=20

"Even if a Democratic candidate wins the U.S. presidential election, =
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright(who is known to be a strong =
personal admirer of Suu Kyi) may leave the White House and the U.S. =
administration of a new president may pursue a Myanmar policy different =
from the one the Clinton administration take now," the person said.



>From Analysis: Asia section of THE JAPAN TIMES, published in DECEMBER =
17, 1999


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<DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D5>
<P>JAPAN HARPS ON DEMOCRATIZATION</P></FONT><FONT size=3D7>
<P>Staying engaged with Myanmar</P></FONT><I>
<P>By HISANE MASAKI</P></I><FONT size=3D3>
<P>Staff Writer</P></FONT>
<P>Myanmar is a predominantly Buddhist, impoverished country that would =
br=20
cheered by any outside aid. But if its military rulers had expected =
early=20
Christmas presents from Japan -- the world`s largest aid donor -- they =
may now=20
be feeling deeply disappointed.</P>
<P>Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi met with Than Shwe, the top leader of the =
Myanmar=20
military regime, in Manila on Nov. 28 on the fringes of the meetings =
between top=20
leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and also from =
Japan,=20
China and South Korea.</P>
<P>It was the first time since the military took power in Myanmar -- or =
Burma,=20
as the country was once referred to -- in a 1988 coup that a Japanese =
prime=20
minister had held official bilateral talks with a top leader of the =
Myanmar=20
military regime.</P>
<P>Three days later, former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto visited =
Yangon on a=20
mission organized by a nongovernmental Japanese organization and met =
with Than=20
Shwe, chairman of the State Peace and Development Council(SPDC), as the =
military=20
junta now calls itself. Hashimoto currently serves as Obuchi`s supreme =
foreign=20
policy adviser. </P>
<P>But neither Obuchi nor Hashimoto offered any fresh economic aid -- =
except a=20
minuscule amount of technical cooperation to help the Southeast Asian =
country=20
promote its economic reforms. Separately, they instead pressed the SPDC =
chairman=20
to move toward democratization.</P>
<P>In their 20-minute meeting, Obuchi told Than Shwe that Myanmar needs =
to make=20
progress on democratization &quot;step by step&quot;and &quot;in a =
visible=20
manner,&quot; although achieving a full democratization overnight may be =

impossible, according to Japanese officials.</P>
<P>While claiming that the SPDC is making democratization efforts, Than =
Shwe=20
apparently sought a Japanese understanding of and patiencewith the =
military=20
regime`s policy, citing an old Myanmar proverb that a village will not =
be in=20
sight until a traveler reaches the end of the road, according to the=20
officials.</P>
<P><FONT size=3D5>Hashimoto`s blunt words</FONT></P>
<P>Hashimoto was more specific on the democratization issue. He was =
quoted as=20
telling Than Shwe that the military regime should completely lift a =
decree=20
shutting down universities in Myanmar -- a measure taken to pre-empt =
student=20
prodemocracy activities - as soon as possible and that the role of =
ensuring=20
security should be transferred from the military to police.</P>
<P>The military rulers rolled out the red carpet for Hashimoto. Than =
Shwe=20
himself hosted a dinner for the former Japanese premier, an honor =
usually=20
reserved for foreign heads of state or government on official visits. =
</P>
<P>The last time the two had met was at the end of 1997 in a summit in =
Kuala=20
Lumpur, when Hashimoto was still a prime minister. During his recent =
Yangon=20
visit, no officials accompanied Hashimoto.</P>
<P>Although Than Shwe broached specific proposals for official economic=20
cooperation between Myanmar and Japan, Hashimoto was quoted as reminding =
his=20
host that he was there only in a private capacity and not as Obuchi`s =
adviser.=20
Bluntly, he said that those proposals should be discussed only between=20
government officials of the two countries. </P>
<P>Minoru Kiryu, a professor of economics at Osaka Sangyo University, =
said that=20
the SPDC had not expected Than Shwe`s recent talks with Obuchi and =
Hashimoto=20
alone to bring about a <FONT color=3D#000000>breakthrough in stalled =
official=20
economic cooperation between the two countries. </FONT></P>
<P>&quot;They(Myanmar officials) seem to be very happy with those =
contacts=20
because they expect high-level political contacts will pave the way for =
a=20
full-scale inflow of official Japanese aid sometime in the future,&quot; =
said=20
Kiryu, a leading Japanese expert on Myanmar affairs. </P>
<P>In recent years, the United States and other industrialized countries =
in=20
Europe have toughened economic and other sanctions against Myanmar for =
its=20
military regime`s alleged violations of democratic principles and human =
rights,=20
including the continued crackdown on the prodemocracy movement led by =
Suu Kyi.=20
She was released from house arrest in 1995 and Japan was widely credited =
for=20
having a key role in persuading the regime to take that step.</P>
<P>In addition to the economic sanctions, the Asian economic crisis that =
erupted=20
in 1997 dealt a serious blow to Myanmar economy, which saw a sharp =
decline in=20
foreign investment, especially from its fellow ASEAN members.</P>
<P>The collapse in May 1998 of Presidents Suharto`s regime in Indonesia=20
apparently was another serious setback for the SPDC, which was widely =
believed=20
to have seen the Suharto regime as a political model for Myanmar. =
Despite all=20
these, the council has shown no clear signs of budging on the =
democratization=20
issue.</P>
<P>Amid these circumstances, the Obuchi-Than Shwe meeting in Manila and=20
Hashimoto`s visit to Yangon raised some eyebrows in the U.S. But Tokyo =
insists=20
that they never represented a change in its Myanmar policy.</P>
<P>&quot;If we do not meet and talk (with Myanmar officials), we cannot=20
encourage favorable changes in the country,&quot; a senior Foreign =
Ministry=20
official said, requesting that he not be named.</P>
<P>While calling for improvements in the protection of democratic =
principles and=20
human rights in Myanmar, Japan has pursued a policy of =
&quot;constructive=20
engagement&quot; with the Southeast Asian country, instead of isolating =
it=20
internationally.</P>
<P>Although Obuchi told Than Shwe in Manila that Japan was ready to =
provide=20
technical cooperation to help Myanmar develop its human resources, the =
offer=20
itself did not mean any deviation from Tokyo`s official aid policy =
toward the=20
postcoup Myanmar.</P>
<P>Since the 1988 coup, Japan has suspended fresh yen loans and =
grant-in-aid=20
except for what it regards as humanitarian purposes. But small amounts =
of=20
technical cooperation, such as inviting economic trainees, have remained =
intact.=20
</P>
<P>Nevertheless, the administration of President Bill Clinton, the most =
virulent=20
in criticizing the Myanmar military regime, is believed to be unhappy =
about the=20
even small amounts of technical cooperation flowing from Tokyo into =
Yangon.=20
</P><FONT size=3D5>
<P>Country report blocked</P></FONT>
<P>The World Bank sent a fact-finding economic mission to Yangon in June =
and has=20
drafted a country report on the Myanmar economy based on the mission`s =
findings.=20
But the Clinton administration is putting political pressure on the bank =
to=20
refrain from finalizing the draft country report, according to =
diplomatic=20
sources familiar with the matter. </P>
<P>The Clinton administration fears that once the report gets ready, the =
World=20
Bank may move to initiate some economic aid, including technical =
cooperation,=20
for the Southeast Asian country, the sources said.</P>
<P>It is very unlikely that the World Bank will extend a large amount of =
aid to=20
Myanmar in the foreseeable future despite strong U.S. objections. The =
U.S. is=20
the largest financial contributor to the bank and wields enormous =
political=20
influence over its business.</P>
<P>But Japan believes that the time has come for the World Bank to =
initiate at=20
least technical cooperation to help Myanmar reform its economic =
structure.</P>
<P>This question pitted Japan and the U.S. against each other in late =
October,=20
when their representatives and those of other industrialized countries,=20
including Britain and Australia, met secretly in New York together with =
United=20
Nations officials, the sources said. The U.S. vehemently opposed the =
idea of=20
technical cooperation. </P>
<P>Although Tokyo strongly denies any shift in its Myanmar policy, the =
meetings=20
with Than Shwe apparently reflect a government concern about a possible =
sudden=20
change in the U.S. policy toward the Southeast Asian country, according =
to a=20
person familiar with the Japanese government`s thinking. </P>
<P>This person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the =
government is=20
&quot;feeling pressed&quot; to do something more to advance its =
relations with=20
Yangon because it believes that theU.S. may change -- or at least ease =
-- its=20
sanctions policy toward Myanmar after presidential elections in November =
next=20
year. </P>
<P>&quot;Even if a Democratic candidate wins the U.S. presidential =
election,=20
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright(who is known to be a strong =
personal=20
admirer of Suu Kyi) may leave the White House and the U.S. =
administration of a=20
new president may pursue a Myanmar policy different from the one the =
Clinton=20
administration take now,&quot; the person said.</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>From Analysis: Asia section of THE JAPAN TIMES, published in DECEMBER =
17,=20
1999</P></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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