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Editorial & Opinion
Southeast Asia searching for solutions

Southeast Asia's economy may have ended the year on a positive note but 
there are still long-term security and political challenges to overcome, 
writes Don Pathan of The Nation .
In Thailand, the two-year old crisis was a blessing in disguise. Sins of the 
past have been met with calls for transparency, accountability and good 
governance from the military, as well as the public and private sectors. The 
country's fiscal crisis has taken its toll on just about every military 
procurement project, thus ending years of frivolous spending and shopping 
sprees for military hardware that critics said might or might not enhance 
country's overall defence capability. A frigate without a minesweeper is a 
useless frigate, indeed.
Moreover, the move towards reforming the armed forces is well on the way and 
a new batch of officers is being trained to command units that are leaner, 
meaner and quicker. A new defence mandate aimed at uniting all forces under 
one tactical command is also in the pipeline.
Army Chief Gen Surayudh Chulanont has kept his promise to take the military 
out of politics and educate the men to make them ''professional soldiers''. 
But the making of a respected institution means giving up scores of radio 
stations, as well as a number of army-owned enterprises. The idea of putting 
their future in the hands of civilians might not sit well with many of the 
top brass. Nevertheless, all are agreed that there is no turning back.
This year also saw the Thai military's ego get a big boost with the 
departure of about 1,850 troops to East Timor on a peacekeeping mission. 
Thailand was made second in command after Australia in a multinational 
peacekeeping operation in the war-torn island nation.
In Indonesia, the world was brutally jolted when its fourth most populous 
nation was brought to the brink of collapse.
A near-blind Muslim cleric with great vision for diplomacy and good 
governance stepped into the political arena and restored a sense of hope. 
Abdularahman Wahid is an Indonesian president extraordinaire.
Besides East Timor, which had drifted violently towards independence, 
Indonesia is currently witnessing calls for separation and autonomy in other 
parts of its territory.
The country's military is keeping a low profile as it licks its wounds from 
the violence in East Timor. But though it may be down, no one is counting it 
out.
Trouble-plagued Burma got a wake-up call when five armed dissidents stormed 
the country's embassy in Bangkok, taking diplomats and foreigners hostage at 
gunpoint and stating their grievances to a world that doesn't seem to be 
listening.
In spite of the fact that the 25-hour crisis ended peacefully with no 
bloodshed, the aftermath resulted in a drastic downturn in Thai-Burmese 
relations. It was also a big blow for the so-called Asean solidarity.
Meanwhile, the Rangoon government's offensive against the ethnic rebel 
armies is reportedly moving into full swing and more refugees are expected 
to flood over the border into Thailand in the coming days.
Talk of Tokyo aiding Rangoon financially in return for economic reform may 
not go down too well with Burmese dissident groups but many are taking 
silence from Washington as a tacit sign of approval. After all, say 
Bangkok-based diplomats, neither Washington nor Tokyo would like to see 
Rangoon drift further into the hands of Beijing.
Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if the new American administration will 
carry the ''free Burma'' torch of Secretary of State Madeline Albright, 
sometime referred to as the ''Burma Desk Officer''.
Burmese dissidents say Washington's rhetoric against Rangoon is likely to 
fade away with Albright's departure as the next administration takes over 
after the American presidential election next year.
Land-locked Laos was brutally jolted after a group of students, disgusted at 
the way things are going -- or perhaps at the way things aren't going -- 
were reportedly planning to stage a public protest. Vientiane was dumbstruck 
by the unprecedented incident because never before had anybody dared to 
question the Communist rule. The move was stopped before it got off the 
ground but those in the know said the issue is far from over.
Along the Thai-Malay border, the threats of the old days have faded with 
more cross-border links between ethnic Malays. Thai Muslims in the South are 
delighted at the outcome of the recent general election in Malaysia that 
resulted in the expansion of the Islamic party, PAS, in Malaysia's northern 
states. On the Thai side of the border, community and religious leaders say 
Bangkok has to get over the old fear of armed separatists and look to PAS in 
terms of what it has to offer.
Outspoken Malaysian Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammad called on the region to 
form its own security forum but did not elaborate on the nature of the 
proposed body or how it would be any different from the half-hearted Asean 
Regional Forum, often referred to as a ''talk shop''.
Meanwhile, future joint military exercises between the US and the 
Philippines aimed at turning the bilateral tie into equal partnership will 
replace the outdated security arrangement. The Philippines is supposed to 
feel that it's on an equal footing with the American military but it is well 
understood that the bilateral defence agreements between the US and a number 
of countries in the region will continue to be the main security arrangement 
for some time to come.
In Cambodia, the collapse of Khmer Rouge has enabled the government to cut 
back on military spending. But a planned tribunal to try former KR leaders 
could very well turn out to be a mockery of justice. If a compromise between 
the western countries and Cambodia cannot be reached, Phnom Penh ties with 
the international community could go into a tailspin again.
Talk of upgrading the Asean Regional Forum from a talk-shop on ''confidence 
building measure'' to an organisation with teeth capable of managing 
conflicts received a boost at the 1999 ministerial meeting in Singapore.
However, Asean's call for a ''code of conduct'' in the South China Sea for 
countries engaged in territorial disputes doesn't seem to have a chance of 
survival unless common ground can be found between Beijing and other 
claimants.
Meanwhile, Beijing continues to play hardball with its neighbouring 
countries, particularly those with overlapping claims, refusing to negotiate 
with them in a multinational forum. Instead, the Chinese are calling on 
these countries to engage them in a bilateral setting.
To deal with hot issues that may pop up unexpectedly, Asean has proposed 
setting up a ''troika'' similar to the three member ad-hoc committee that 
helped end the dispute between the two warring Cambodian factions two years 
ago.
It is believed that its small size would help it respond more quickly than 
Asean could acting as a whole. The idea is still floating in the air, 
however, and more debates will come up in the near future.
All in all, Southeast Asia in 1999 was shaped by events that called for 
political changes and questioned the old social and political models that 
have sustained decades of economic growth. If the trend continues, such 
concepts as ''Asian values'' or ''Asean ways'' may no longer be a thing of 
the past. Until then, nations in the region will continue to do more 
soul-searching in order to find ways to meet the challenges of the future in 
a sustainable manner.
BY DON PATHAN
The Nation - 28 December 99
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