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Editorial & Opinion
Southeast Asia searching for solutions
Southeast Asia's economy may have ended the year on a positive note but
there are still long-term security and political challenges to overcome,
writes Don Pathan of The Nation .
In Thailand, the two-year old crisis was a blessing in disguise. Sins of the
past have been met with calls for transparency, accountability and good
governance from the military, as well as the public and private sectors. The
country's fiscal crisis has taken its toll on just about every military
procurement project, thus ending years of frivolous spending and shopping
sprees for military hardware that critics said might or might not enhance
country's overall defence capability. A frigate without a minesweeper is a
useless frigate, indeed.
Moreover, the move towards reforming the armed forces is well on the way and
a new batch of officers is being trained to command units that are leaner,
meaner and quicker. A new defence mandate aimed at uniting all forces under
one tactical command is also in the pipeline.
Army Chief Gen Surayudh Chulanont has kept his promise to take the military
out of politics and educate the men to make them ''professional soldiers''.
But the making of a respected institution means giving up scores of radio
stations, as well as a number of army-owned enterprises. The idea of putting
their future in the hands of civilians might not sit well with many of the
top brass. Nevertheless, all are agreed that there is no turning back.
This year also saw the Thai military's ego get a big boost with the
departure of about 1,850 troops to East Timor on a peacekeeping mission.
Thailand was made second in command after Australia in a multinational
peacekeeping operation in the war-torn island nation.
In Indonesia, the world was brutally jolted when its fourth most populous
nation was brought to the brink of collapse.
A near-blind Muslim cleric with great vision for diplomacy and good
governance stepped into the political arena and restored a sense of hope.
Abdularahman Wahid is an Indonesian president extraordinaire.
Besides East Timor, which had drifted violently towards independence,
Indonesia is currently witnessing calls for separation and autonomy in other
parts of its territory.
The country's military is keeping a low profile as it licks its wounds from
the violence in East Timor. But though it may be down, no one is counting it
out.
Trouble-plagued Burma got a wake-up call when five armed dissidents stormed
the country's embassy in Bangkok, taking diplomats and foreigners hostage at
gunpoint and stating their grievances to a world that doesn't seem to be
listening.
In spite of the fact that the 25-hour crisis ended peacefully with no
bloodshed, the aftermath resulted in a drastic downturn in Thai-Burmese
relations. It was also a big blow for the so-called Asean solidarity.
Meanwhile, the Rangoon government's offensive against the ethnic rebel
armies is reportedly moving into full swing and more refugees are expected
to flood over the border into Thailand in the coming days.
Talk of Tokyo aiding Rangoon financially in return for economic reform may
not go down too well with Burmese dissident groups but many are taking
silence from Washington as a tacit sign of approval. After all, say
Bangkok-based diplomats, neither Washington nor Tokyo would like to see
Rangoon drift further into the hands of Beijing.
Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if the new American administration will
carry the ''free Burma'' torch of Secretary of State Madeline Albright,
sometime referred to as the ''Burma Desk Officer''.
Burmese dissidents say Washington's rhetoric against Rangoon is likely to
fade away with Albright's departure as the next administration takes over
after the American presidential election next year.
Land-locked Laos was brutally jolted after a group of students, disgusted at
the way things are going -- or perhaps at the way things aren't going --
were reportedly planning to stage a public protest. Vientiane was dumbstruck
by the unprecedented incident because never before had anybody dared to
question the Communist rule. The move was stopped before it got off the
ground but those in the know said the issue is far from over.
Along the Thai-Malay border, the threats of the old days have faded with
more cross-border links between ethnic Malays. Thai Muslims in the South are
delighted at the outcome of the recent general election in Malaysia that
resulted in the expansion of the Islamic party, PAS, in Malaysia's northern
states. On the Thai side of the border, community and religious leaders say
Bangkok has to get over the old fear of armed separatists and look to PAS in
terms of what it has to offer.
Outspoken Malaysian Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammad called on the region to
form its own security forum but did not elaborate on the nature of the
proposed body or how it would be any different from the half-hearted Asean
Regional Forum, often referred to as a ''talk shop''.
Meanwhile, future joint military exercises between the US and the
Philippines aimed at turning the bilateral tie into equal partnership will
replace the outdated security arrangement. The Philippines is supposed to
feel that it's on an equal footing with the American military but it is well
understood that the bilateral defence agreements between the US and a number
of countries in the region will continue to be the main security arrangement
for some time to come.
In Cambodia, the collapse of Khmer Rouge has enabled the government to cut
back on military spending. But a planned tribunal to try former KR leaders
could very well turn out to be a mockery of justice. If a compromise between
the western countries and Cambodia cannot be reached, Phnom Penh ties with
the international community could go into a tailspin again.
Talk of upgrading the Asean Regional Forum from a talk-shop on ''confidence
building measure'' to an organisation with teeth capable of managing
conflicts received a boost at the 1999 ministerial meeting in Singapore.
However, Asean's call for a ''code of conduct'' in the South China Sea for
countries engaged in territorial disputes doesn't seem to have a chance of
survival unless common ground can be found between Beijing and other
claimants.
Meanwhile, Beijing continues to play hardball with its neighbouring
countries, particularly those with overlapping claims, refusing to negotiate
with them in a multinational forum. Instead, the Chinese are calling on
these countries to engage them in a bilateral setting.
To deal with hot issues that may pop up unexpectedly, Asean has proposed
setting up a ''troika'' similar to the three member ad-hoc committee that
helped end the dispute between the two warring Cambodian factions two years
ago.
It is believed that its small size would help it respond more quickly than
Asean could acting as a whole. The idea is still floating in the air,
however, and more debates will come up in the near future.
All in all, Southeast Asia in 1999 was shaped by events that called for
political changes and questioned the old social and political models that
have sustained decades of economic growth. If the trend continues, such
concepts as ''Asian values'' or ''Asean ways'' may no longer be a thing of
the past. Until then, nations in the region will continue to do more
soul-searching in order to find ways to meet the challenges of the future in
a sustainable manner.
BY DON PATHAN
The Nation - 28 December 99
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