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Sending out feelers (Asia week)



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<font size=3D4><b>Sending out feelers <br>
</b>Behind the fresh initiatives to woo Yangon <br>
<br>
</font><font size=3D3>Suddenly there is movement. And as with anything
involving Myanmar, it is as surprising and unexpected as its outcome is
unpredictable. Several countries have launched or are launching
initiatives to engage Yangon military junta. Will the diplomatic efforts
lead to the regime lightening up? And how did they get started? To try to
suss that out, it pays to track back a year. <br>
At that time, there was recalcitrance and inflexibility on all sides. The
Junta and the National league for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi were
as far apart as ever. Internationally, Yangon and the west remained
pitted against each other in seemingly intractable positions, while
Yangon's more conciliatory ASEAN colleagues were preoccupied with
economic recovery. It was status immobilus. Then an event unrelated to
the political impasse sparked a reappraisal by many governments which led
to the present plans. <br>
The event was the February 1999 Interpol conference on battling the drug
trade. Amazingly, the regime allowed it to be held in Yangon. Its
anti-narcotics chief, Col.Kyaw Thein, recalls;&quot;Interpol approached
us to hold this meeting; we did not go to them. We are regarded as the
major opium-producing country in this region, but we get no assistance
from outside to fight the problem. We just get all the blame. &quot;They
got even more, when caught off-guard by Yangon agreeing to host the meet-
Western nations put political posturing ahead of trying to solve the drug
scourge and decided to boycott the conference. On the wacky grounds that
their attendance might give credibility to the regime, the US and UK
wimped out&nbsp; and stiff-armed other European states to do the same
(much to Interpol's chagrin). But ASEAN members and 23 other countries
did attend. Notes one expatriate professional in Yangon; &quot;The way
this was reported in Europe and America was nasty and dishonest, saying
only 'minor nations' attended. Does that mean Japan, Thailand, Indonesia,
Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, China are minor nations?&quot; It
was a seminal moment, for the nations who broke ranks with the fatuous
Western-inspired boycott are now among those at the forefront of the new
initiatives. <br>
First, in May, the Swiss-based International Committee of the Red Cross
began to visit prisons and other correctional facilities in Myanmar. Suu
Kyi was unhappy about the move, saying it might be exploited by the
regime, but she reserved judgement to see whether repeat visits would be
allowed. They has been ,indeed, the ICRC has , in its own tactiturn
manner, been almost ecstatic about access it has been given. European
envoys say conditions for prisoners, including visiting rights, have
improved and are even better than those in some ASEAN neighbors like
Vietnam and Laos. <br>
Next came moves by Australia, Foreign Minister Alex ander Downer
said&quot;a more creative approach&quot; to Myanmar was needed and
revealed that his country's human rights commissioner, Chris Sidoti,would
travel to Yangon. Other visits to Yangon took place-a fact finding
European Union Troika in July, followed by South Korean officials, and
and then U.N. representative Alvaro de Soto arriving in October for his
fifth attempt to break the political stalemate. Again, he got nowhere-
with not only the Junta but also with Suu Kyi, who found him too soft on
the military.<br>
De Soto's approach had been akin to the so-called &quot;carrot and stick
&quot;line proposed by a group of nations that met at Chilston Park in
southeast England in 1998. There Yangon regime was reportedly offered up
to $1 billion under a plan linked to the World Bank and UN.- if it would
make political concessions. Though it desperately needed money, the
regime decline. Foreign Minister Win Aung told Asia week;&quot; This is
like offering a banana to a monkey and asking it to dance. We are not
monkeys. We won't dance.&quot; <br>
Realizing that this Western inspired tactic was going nowhere, the
Japanese and South Koreans explored other possibilities. Having welcomed
the ICRC initiative and applauded Australia's moves, hey now sought their
own &quot;creative approaches&quot; to Myanmar. At November's ASEAN
Informal Summit in Manila, Japanese PM Obuchi Keizo held a landmark
meeting with junta leader Gen. Than Shwe and other key figures. Three
hours later, Than Shwe and entourage met with south Korean President Kim
Dae Jung. Both encounters heralded future developments.<br>
 The first came two days after the Manila summit when former Japanese PM
Hashimoto Ryutaro visited Yangon. He held talks with Than Shwe and other
leaders and was unexpectedly treated to a dinner by the Myanmar
leadership. Next day, his group visited hospitals, the port, high schools
and the University of Yangon which they were surprised to see appeared
open. Hashimoto made four points to the generals. First, they should use
the police not the military to maintain the order . Second, they should
fully reopen all the Universities, closed three years ago after student
protests.(The regime says it will reopen all the University of Yangon's
under grad schools early this year ) Third , Hashimoto told Than Shwe the
regime should quicken moves to a market economy, especially in promoting
more privatization. He urged them to consider employing more foreigners
as consultants, including Japanese technical experts. lastly, he said the
generals should not push Suu Kyi into a corner so that she becomes the
heroine of a tragedy. Instead, they should keep a working relationship
with her. Junta leaders listened to Hashimoto's proposals, appreciating
the non-threatening way in which they were made. They told him they
needed help in education, medical facilities, power supply and
agriculture. Hashimoto said he would relay the message to Tokyo. <br>
 Aware of the Japanese initiatives, Suu Kyi cautioned in her new year
message;&quot; As the richest Asian country and as a democracy Japan has
a duty to try to promote human rights and democracy in other parts of
Asia. Notably in Myanmar, she inferred, but left unstated. <br>
 Suu Kyi has a point .When dealing with Japan, the regime is clearly
fishing for quid pro quo benefits of an upfront financial nature, while
towards multiparty democracy are secondary consideration. Says one
professional familiar with the regime; &quot; If Japanese offer something
new or undertake further debt forgiveness or grant something, then I
would expect movement in the various Japanese-led projects. Perhaps the
regime has learned lessons from North Korea-incremental progress for
favors.&quot; <br>
 Together with the Japanese, Australia and ICRCactions, there is also
movement on other fronts. From Jan. 10 to 15, Obuchi will visit Cambodia,
Laos and Thailand, and his Myanmar initiatives will be on the agenda. In
March the Koreans will host a so-called &quot;Chilton-2&quot; meeting in
Seoul. Participants will try to build on the current momentum to bring
Yangon in from the cold. South Korean Foreign Minster Hong Soon Young
told Asia week;&quot; One way is to isolate , antagonize and penalize.
Another is to recognize, negotiate and eventually engage. you have to be
tough when you say something to the Myanmar regime, but that does not
mean pressuring them, because that verges on interference in domestic
affairs &quot; <br>
 &nbsp; Even among diehard anti-regime western nations, there is a
growing receptivity to new approaches. Recently, the envoy of several
European and North American nations and ostracism are not working. But
given well-funded and efficient pro-suu Kyi lobbies back home, they
cannot risk publicly recommending policy changes. An official familiar
with Hashimoto's visit says; &quot; a more productive approach would be
to promote economic reform. assist the Burmese to fight AIDS and drugs,
and them raise the living standards of the people. It would be the best
way to bring democracy to Myanmar.&quot; The realization itself is a move
forward. since in all prior discussions the welfare of the people has
appeared to get the least attention. So that, at least, is=20
progress.<br>
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