Stalemate in Myanmar

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Stalemate in Myanmar

The Hindu (New Delhi)
October 9, 2000

All Doors seem firmly shut to the possibility of a rapprochement between
Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi?s National League for Democracy (NLD) and Myanmar?s
ruling military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

Vietnam, as the new chairman of ASEAN, has rejected the proposal floated
by Thailand to operationalise an ASEAN ?troika? to bridge the gap
between the SPDC and the NLD. A statement from the Vietnamese Foreign
Ministry in Hanoi, faxed to The Hindu in Singapore, said on the issue:
?Vietnam has held consultation with Myanmar and the countries concerned
in the Association and on the basis of consensus and non-interference
into each other?s internal affairs and is of the view that recent
development in Myanmar is its internal affair with which outsiders
should not interfere.?

Given the current state of play inside Myanmar, a wholly self- generated
process of dialogue seems to be a difficult prospect.

The accusatory role of the Western world does not seem to have had much
impact on the mili8taryh Government ? so, in a sense, an ASEAN or
regional role had the best chance of succeedcing.

Now, however, after the categorical statement made by Vietnam, the
?troika? idea suggested by Thailand has been given a decent burial by
Hanoi in consultation with other ASEAN countries.

Quite apart from the impact on Myanmar, the Vietnamese announcement is a
clear signal to those ASEAN countries, which favour a more
interventionist group that the Association is not moving into a
conflict-resolution mode any time soon. Many nations in the 10-member
ASEAN have their own problems and disfavour any troika ?precedent? which
may work against them in the years to come.

Inside Myanmar, it would appear that Ms. Suu Kyi and some of her
colleagues are being kept under wraps after they were taken away from a
Yangon railway station after a bid to travel outside the capital city.

The official press in Myanmar has unleashed a vicious war of words
against Ms. Suu Kyi. In a recent commentary, the New Light of Myanmar
said: ?Having lived abroad, eaten food from abroad and drunk water from
abroad for over 30 years, she was virtually deprived of a sense of
patriotism. Any citizen will not put up with her act to destroy the
nation with the use of her father?s name as a stepping stone.?

In a separate comment, the State-run Myanmar Alin daily described the
Nobel laureate as a ?guest? in the country and warned she would be
driven out with a ?hundred lashes? if she abused her hoses.

?If the guest is good, it contributes to the welfare of the house. But
if the guest is bad it affects the household; thus the guest should not
abuse the host or else she?ll be driven out with (a) hundred lashes,?
the daily said.

Such phraseology is a clear indication of the gap between the Government
and the pro-democracy leader. For its part, the military regime
continues to hammer away at the ?foreign-ness? of Ms. Suu Kyi. There are
reports that Ms. Suu jKyi is not allowed to see visitors and her
telephones are cut off ? a virtual form of arrest.

In its annual report for 2000, Amnesty International said there was a
continuing stand-off between the SPDC maintained its right to convene
parliament are refused to dissolve the 10-member Committee Representing
the People?s Parliament (CRPP) in the face of the SPDC?s demands to do
so before considering dialogue.? ?Although a peaceful civil disobedience
campaign was panned by exiled opposition groups in September (1999), the
plan did not materialize after the preemptive arrest of scores of people
by the SPDC. The Myanmar Army continued to engage in skirmishes with
ethnic minority armed opposition groups ? the Karen National Union
(KNU), the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Shan State
Army-South (SSA-South). The fighting caused further displacement of
ethnic minority villagers.

Sixteen ceasefire agreements negotiated in previous years between the
SPDC and various ethnic minority armed opposition groups were
maintained,? the Amnesty report, which reviewed developments in 1999,
added.

The recent decision to disallow Ms. Suu Kyi to travel out of Yangon,
first by road and then buy rail has, as expected, raised the hackles of
the western world, which thought nothing of cosying up to Gen. Suharto
of Indonesia in his 32 long years of autocratic rule. An European Union
official went as far as to say in Bangkok this week that the troubled
E.U.-ASEAN dialogue which was to take place in Laos in December could be
affected by the recent developments in Myanmar. A decision on whether or
not the dialogue would take place is expected later, he added.

In the past, there has been separate engagement between the Myanmar
junta, Australia and Japan. While maintaining this engagement, Australia
has been quite critical of the recent actions of the SPDC. Clearly, the
American-led Western world must think up something new if they are to
play a role in Myanmar. Mere statements of condemnation do not achieve
much.