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CEASEFIRE LISTS: REQUEST FOR INFO



CEASEFIRE LISTS

The SPDC, and SLORC before it, have derived a fair amount of international
credit, especially among the neighbours, from the "cease-fires"  it has agreed
with armed groups. I seem  to remember SLORC/SPDC claims that 18 groups
had  "returned to the legal (sic) fold" with only the wicked  KNU left out.
(While within, reconsolidated at last after long years of colonial 
division, the
happy flocks bask in the golden rays of the Tatmadaw)

According to the Official Website, the Golden Land, the SPDC now claims
ceasefires with 15, not 18 groups. Could it be that it is ashamed of its
connections with certain  Wa armies, fearing they might jeopardise its
entry into polite international society?

The Landmine Monitor Report 2000 lists 10 armed groups with cease-fires
and a hefty 23 without. Perhaps the KNU is not so isolated as Rangoon
would  have us think.

Since I do not know all these groups, or how many troops each one has
in the field, I  thought I would ask the Burma Internet community. Please
look at the lists below,  check on the websites for more info, and get
your pencils out.

What I would like to know is how many fully armed troops can be fielded
by the  groups the SPDC has ceasefires with, and how many by the others.
That is not the  end of my interest, of course, but it's somewhere to start.


The SPDC figures are on the "Exchanging Arms for Peace" section of  the
SPDC Website: http://www.myanmar.com/peace/peace.html
(Note the flashing generals at the bottom)

The Burma section of the Landmine Monitor Report  2000 is on
http://www.igc.org/nonviolence/burmamines/lm2.html
You have to click the yellow band about one third down the text to
get the chart of armed groups.

The SPDC lists 15 ceasefire groups

MYANMAR NATIONAL DEMOCRACY ALLIANCE (MNDA)
MYANMAR NATIONAL SOLIDARUTY PARTY (MNSP)
NATIONAL DEMOCRACY ALLIANCE ARMY (NDAA)
SHAN STATE ARMY (SSA)
NEW DEMOCRATIC ARMY(KACHIN) (NDA)
KACHINE DEFENCE ARMY (KDA)
PA-0 NATIONAL ORGANIZATION (PNO)
PALAUNG STATE LIBERATION ARMY (PSLA)
KAYAN NATIONAL GUARD (KNG)
KACHIN INDEPENDENCE ORGANIZATION (KIO)
KAYAN NEW LAND PARTY (KNLP)
KAYINNI NATIONAL PEOPLE'S LIBERATION FRONT (KNPLF)
SHAN STATE NATIONALITIES PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ORGANIZATION (SNPLO)
KAYINNI NATIONAL PROGRESSIVE PARTY (KNPP)
NEW MON STATE PARTY (NMSP)

The sharp-eyed will notice that these include the KNPP,
which so  far as I know is at war with Rangoon, and the
SSA. The UWSA etc are absent

Could someone who knows these groups do a bit of arithmetic.
Subtract the groups like KNPP  and SSA which do not appear
to have a current ceasefire and those that have no military presence,
and give your best estimates of the number of troops left.
My guess is not more  than 4000, largely KIA  troops


The Landmine Monitor Report lists the following groups as
having ceasefires with Rangoon:

KACHIN INDEPENDENCE ARMY
KACHIN DEMOCRATIC ARMY (former KIA 4th Brigade)
NEW DEMOCRATIC ARMY (former CPB 101)
UNITED WA STATE ARMY
SHAN STATE NATIONALITIES PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ORGANIZATION
PALAUNG STATE LIBERATION ARMY
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE ARMY (former CPB 815)
KARENNI NATIONAL PEOPLE'S LIBERATION FORCES
KARENNI NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ARMY
MON NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY

This makes 10, with a query regarding the National Socialist Council
of Nagaland (Khaplang).  I asked someone who told me that Khaplang's
troops had been fighting the Tatmadaw a few weeks earlier, and anyway,
they don't appear in the SPDC list. The LMR list refers to the KNPP
ceasefire as "broken"


Another interesting aspect of the LMR list is the groups listed as
having a significant military presence, but without a ceasefire. These are

ARAKAN LIBERATION ARMY
ARAKAN ARMY
ROHINGYA ARMY
ARAKAN PEOPLE'S ARMY
ROHINGYA NATIONAL ARMY
CHIN NATIONAL ARMY
KUKI NATIONAL ARMY
ZOMI NATIONAL ARMY
SHAN STATE ARMY
WA NATIONAL ARMY
KAREN NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY
DEMOCRATIC KAREN BUDDHIST ARMY
ALL BURMA STUDENTS DEMOCRATIC FRONT
ALL BURMA MUSLIM UNION
PEOPLE'S DEFENSE FORCES
PEOPLES'S LIBERATION FRONT
KAREN NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY (Pegu Division)
MYEIK-DAWEI UNITED FRONT
KAREN NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY (Tenasserim Division)
ALL BURMA DEMOCRATIC FRONT (Tenasserim division)
GOD'S ARMY

To these one could add the KNPP and the NSCN(K) making 23 groups in all.
Given that the affiliation of the DKBA is somewhat dubious, and the KNLA and
ABSDF feature 3 times each, this is still a sizeable number of groups without
ceasefires --  rather more than the one isolated group claimed by the SPDC