Mizzima: Generals aim to give lip s

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Generals aim to give lip service to democracy in Burma

By Kanbawza Win; New Delhi, February 2, 2001
Mizzima News Group (www.mizzima.com)

A ferocious tiger and a little lamb who come to drink water in a stream
met accidentally. The tiger always had the habit of self-justification
in trying to find some excuse to kill the lamb. He said, "Hey! You young
rascal, why are you muddying the water which I am drinking?" The little
lamb meekly replied, "No sir, the water flows from you to me." The tiger
found it was true and so he said, "Remember, last year you mudded the
water and ran away." The lamb humbly replied, "No sir, last year I
wasn?t born yet." "Then it must have been your father and you shall pay
for it," and he pounced on the little lamb. This is a possible scenario
in the negotiations between the National League for Democracy and the
Burmese Junta.

International pressure from both the East and the West, including their
bosom friends, ASEAN, compelled the Burmese Generals to change their
stance from a monologue to a dialogue. The Achilles heel of the
country?s economy has been hit hard, and with the prospects of further
sanctions the Generals decided that it was time to show a more
conciliatory attitude as they no longer were in a position to take more
punishment. Releasing General Tin Oo, the septuagenarian vice
chairperson of NLD, together with some other activists seems to suggest
that the Junta has a desire to improve its international image amid
intensifying economic and social pressures at home.

The Burmese currency exchange rate has gone down to a record low of
Kyats 450 plus to a US dollar pointing out the rapidly depreciating
economy compounded by dwindling foreign investment since 1997. Rice, a
key export to earn hard currency, faces a glut in the world market. The
AIDS epidemic (known is Burmese as Hush Hush Na Wa Ta disease) and the
burgeoning narcotic trade forced the Generals to be fight with their
backs against the wall.

The Junta has also realized that the potential pay-off of a few
democratic risks is far better than the hard stance which they have
adhere in the past. Australia, Japan and India have already made their
political contacts to counter the China?s ever growing political and
economic influence. Playing off one against another is a traditional
Myanmar way and clearly see the writings on the wall that potential
donors are ready to boost the flow of aid, only if it could show off a
tangible sign that it is on the path to change. Nippon businessmen are
clamoring their government to resume large-scale development assistance
but Tokyo was reluctant to break fully with the Western powers until
there are signs of political progress. Hence a unanimous decision that
"We must show something really worth while" to the international
community. This can be seen vividly in the news release of the Junta's
embassy when it blames the West led by the US for sanctions and argue
that there is no fixed universal formula for the achievement of
democracy. Hence the main target is to soften the Western stance and to
give lip service to democracy.

No doubt the incremental concessions for the NLD to function will be
given by piecemeal to show off to the European Union, the new Bush
Administration other than the Japanese. What more proof is wanted than
the release of U Tin Oo and 80 NLD youths were timed just a two days
before the EU delegation visited Rangoon. The Junta also wants to send a
signal to the current Bush administration whom they know very well is
less interested in democracy and human rights than Clinton and whose
Vice President, Dick Cheney have invested handsomely in Burma.

There is an old Burmese saying that "A snake sees the legs of another
snake" meaning that an average Burmese can clearly understand the psyche
and the rationale of these Burmese Generals and the real intentions
which they hide behind their backs. Pure logic would teach us that after
their grip on power for nearly half a century they will not let it go
easily now, for, after all they are not the patriots they claim to be.
The Burmese Generals are just power maniacs who are bent on doing
anything to hold on to power. They have proven it by killing thousands
of their own students and young children in 1988. Gross human rights
violations are nothing new to them. The people are seen as objects to be
manipulated. Hence forced labour, forced relocation and, extra judicial
killings are nothing new.

The Burmese Generals/ self appointed position is that they are the
custodians, if not the saviors of the country, and that they alone are
capable while the rest do not even have a trace of patriotism. Besides
they vehemently hate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the pro- democracy forces.
Daw Suu?s popularity in the West and her moral authority over the
Burmese people has not being matched by the Burmese Generals. The
Burmese military realize that they are bumpkins in the international
arena and have no chance whatsoever in diplomacy. Even their domestic
logic has to be forced down on their own people. But they are determined
to retain to power as long as possible and this is non-negotiable.

On the other hand, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the pro-democracy forces are
making a simple demand for the army just to recognize its own laws and
its election results. They are just echoing the late chairman of the
State Law and Order Restoration Council, General Saw Maung?s, pledge to
hold free and fair elections, hand over power to the winner and the army
will go back to the barracks as true custodians and saviors of the
country .It was the winning party?s duty to call a people?s assembly and
draw up a new constitution if needs be.

But the Burmese Generals would not dare to honour their pledge. It is
already a dozen years that they have adopted the 3 Ns (No contact, no
compromise and no negotiations) attitude with the pro-democracy movement
led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. It is only now
that various pressure have forced them to negotiate grudgingly. The
negotiations were welcome by the dissidents, the UN and the
international community, but with caution because it still has a lot of
huddles to overcome. Every body has adopted a "wait and see"
attitude as actions will speak louder than words. In the meantime, we
would like to echo the words by Jan Axel Nordiander, Sweden?s
ambassador, who commented that it was too premature to discuss the
lifting of sanctions, only when tangible steps towards the reinstatement
of democracy and respect for human rights are honored should that be
considered.

The greatest hitch is that the negotiations leave out the ethnic
problem. This is the crux of the country?s problem for half more than
half a century of modern Burma. We are quite convinced that the
negotiations will resemble the story of  the tiger and the lamb. On the
other hand if the negotiations were successful between a Burman and a
Burman or the Junta?s official term of a Myanmar between Myanmar and
left out the ethnic nationalities it will not solve the Burmese problem.
Can there be a Pyidaungsu (Union)? This is the missing link of which the
world should take note if they don?t want to see another Bosnia, Kosovo,
East Timor etc.



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<!doctype html public "-//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en">
<html>
<b><font size=+2>Generals aim to give lip service to democracy in Burma</font></b>
<p>By <b>Kanbawza Win;</b> New Delhi, February 2, 2001
<br>Mizzima News Group (<a href="http://www.mizzima.com";>www.mizzima.com</a>)
<p>A ferocious tiger and a little lamb who come to drink water in a stream
met accidentally. The tiger always had the habit of self-justification
in trying to find some excuse to kill the lamb. He said, "Hey! You young
rascal, why are you muddying the water which I am drinking?" The little
lamb meekly replied, "No sir, the water flows from you to me." The tiger
found it was true and so he said, "Remember, last year you mudded the water
and ran away." The lamb humbly replied, "No sir, last year I wasn?t born
yet." "Then it must have been your father and you shall pay for it," and
he pounced on the little lamb. <b><i>This is a possible scenario in the
negotiations between the National League for Democracy and the Burmese
Junta.</i></b>
<p>International pressure from both the East and the West, including their
bosom friends, ASEAN, compelled the Burmese Generals to change their stance
from a monologue to a dialogue. The Achilles heel of the country?s economy
has been hit hard, and with the prospects of further sanctions the Generals
decided that it was time to show a more conciliatory attitude as they no
longer were in a position to take more punishment. Releasing General Tin
Oo, the septuagenarian vice chairperson of NLD, together with some other
activists seems to suggest that the Junta has a desire to improve its international
image amid intensifying economic and social pressures at home.
<p>The Burmese currency exchange rate has gone down to a record low of
Kyats 450 plus to a US dollar pointing out the rapidly depreciating economy
compounded by dwindling foreign investment since 1997. Rice, a key export
to earn hard currency, faces a glut in the world market. The AIDS epidemic
(known is Burmese as Hush Hush Na Wa Ta disease) and the burgeoning narcotic
trade forced the Generals to be fight with their backs against the wall.
<p>The Junta has also realized that the potential pay-off of a few democratic
risks is far better than the hard stance which they have adhere in the
past. Australia, Japan and India have already made their political contacts
to counter the China?s ever growing political and economic influence. Playing
off one against another is a traditional Myanmar way and clearly see the
writings on the wall that potential donors are ready to boost the flow
of aid, only if it could show off a tangible sign that it is on the path
to change. Nippon businessmen are clamoring their government to resume
large-scale development assistance but Tokyo was reluctant to break fully
with the Western powers until there are signs of political progress. Hence
a unanimous decision that "We must show something really worth while" to
the international community. This can be seen vividly in the news release
of the Junta's embassy when it blames the West led by the US for sanctions
and argue that there is no fixed universal formula for the achievement
of democracy. Hence the main target is to soften the Western stance and
to give lip service to democracy.
<p>No doubt the incremental concessions for the NLD to function will be
given by piecemeal to show off to the European Union, the new Bush Administration
other than the Japanese. What more proof is wanted than the release of
U Tin Oo and 80 NLD youths were timed just a two days before the EU delegation
visited Rangoon. The Junta also wants to send a signal to the current Bush
administration whom they know very well is less interested in democracy
and human rights than Clinton and whose Vice President, Dick Cheney have
invested handsomely in Burma.
<p>There is an old Burmese saying that "A snake sees the legs of another
snake" meaning that an average Burmese can clearly understand the psyche
and the rationale of these Burmese Generals and the real intentions which
they hide behind their backs. Pure logic would teach us that after their
grip on power for nearly half a century they will not let it go easily
now, for, after all they are not the patriots they claim to be. The Burmese
Generals are just power maniacs who are bent on doing anything to hold
on to power. They have proven it by killing thousands of their own students
and young children in 1988. Gross human rights violations are nothing new
to them. The people are seen as objects to be manipulated. Hence forced
labour, forced relocation and, extra judicial killings are nothing new.
<p>The Burmese Generals/ self appointed position is that they are the custodians,
if not the saviors of the country, and that they alone are capable while
the rest do not even have a trace of patriotism. Besides they vehemently
hate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the pro- democracy forces. Daw Suu?s popularity
in the West and her moral authority over the Burmese people has not being
matched by the Burmese Generals. The Burmese military realize that they
are bumpkins in the international arena and have no chance whatsoever in
diplomacy. Even their domestic logic has to be forced down on their own
people. But they are determined to retain to power as long as possible
and this is non-negotiable.
<p>On the other hand, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the pro-democracy forces
are making a simple demand for the army just to recognize its own laws
and its election results. They are just echoing the late chairman of the
State Law and Order Restoration Council, General Saw Maung?s, pledge to
hold free and fair elections, hand over power to the winner and the army
will go back to the barracks as true custodians and saviors of the country
 .It was the winning party?s duty to call a people?s assembly and draw up
a new constitution if needs be.
<p>But the Burmese Generals would not dare to honour their pledge. It is
already a dozen years that they have adopted the 3 Ns (No contact, no compromise
and no negotiations) attitude with the pro-democracy movement led by Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi. It is only now
<br>that various pressure have forced them to negotiate grudgingly. The
negotiations were welcome by the dissidents, the UN and the international
community, but with caution because it still has a lot of huddles to overcome.
Every body has adopted a "wait and see"
<br>attitude as actions will speak louder than words. In the meantime,
we would like to echo the words by Jan Axel Nordiander, Sweden?s ambassador,
who commented that it was too premature to discuss the lifting of sanctions,
only when tangible steps towards the reinstatement of democracy and respect
for human rights are honored should that be considered.
<p>The greatest hitch is that the negotiations leave out the ethnic problem.
This is the crux of the country?s problem for half more than half a century
of modern Burma. We are quite convinced that the negotiations will resemble
the story of&nbsp; the tiger and the lamb. On the other hand if the negotiations
were successful between a Burman and a Burman or the Junta?s official term
of a Myanmar between Myanmar and left out the ethnic nationalities it will
not solve the Burmese problem. Can there be a Pyidaungsu (Union)? This
is the missing link of which the world should take note if they don?t want
to see another Bosnia, Kosovo, East Timor etc.
<p>&nbsp;</html>

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