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Stillness of Change

Subject: Stillness of Change
From: mizzima@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 23:28:00

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Stillness of Change

After prolonged isolation. Yangaon wants to face the world on its own
terms. Will it be allowed to?

>From India Today magazine (New Delhi)
March 5, 2001

By Swapan DASGUPTA in Yangon

Adjoining The main entrance to the Mandalay Fort, Ding Mindon?s stunning
Golden City that was the seat of royal power from 1861 to 1885, is a
large hoarding that is striking in its incongruity. ?The Tatmadaw shall
never betray the national cause,? it proclaims. The Tatmadaw, for the
uninitiated, is the armed forces, the guiding light of Myanmar since
General Ne Win seized power in 1962.

On the face of it, the Tatmadaw is an invisible force, more prominent in
western media reports than on the streets of Mandalay and capital city
Yangon. There are no uniformed intruders to either distract the awfully
courteous shopkeepers selling rubies, jade and handicrafts for dollars
in Yangon?s Bogyoke Market (formerly the Scott Market) or intimidate the
rows of second-hand booksellers on 37th Street. A teeming metropolis
that is part Mumbai, part Kolkata and part Colombo, Yangon blends the
glitzy market economy with the oriental bazaar. The roadside food stalls
are enveloped in a familiar smell of pickled fish but the five-star
hotels are a picture of sanitized orderliness. There is no fixed price
for goods and hard bargaining is part of a time-honoured ritual,
particularly for tourists who can breeze through the country without
negotiation the uncertainties of wildly negotiable multiple exchange
rates.

The legendary bamboo curtain and a prolonged spell of isolation
notwith-standing, Myanmar just isn?t another North Korea. There is
laughter in the streets, pesky child monks needling tourists for alms
and a very un-sub-continental orderliness of traffic. There are no
portraits of Senior-General Than Shwe watching over people and there is
no ban on cable television. English is back as a language of
instruction, cricket is making a cautious comeback among the Indians
and, for the enterprising, there are megabucks to be made.

?Business is good,? gloats U Maung Shwe, a Yangon businessman who works
closely with the Ministry of Commerce. His real name is B.L. Goenka, a
third generation Marwari settled in Myanmar. He is reported to be close
to Lt-General Tin Oo, the Secretary-2 of the ruling State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) who was reportedly killed in a helicopter
crash last week. Goenka may be the archetypal man for all occasions but
even those who lack his formidable connections aren?t exactly unhappy.
Yangon?s Indian community no longer makes up 58 per cent of the
population it did in 1948 but 25 Durga pujas are still held each year in
the city. The anti-Indian feeling that formed a subtext of early Burmese
nationalism has virtually evaporated.

Myanmar isn?t perfect but it isn?t quite the ?fascist Disneyland? that
concerned human-rights bodies have made it out to be. There is an
overdose of olive green military uniforms in the SPDC hierarchy, the
non-official media wage a guerrilla war with the censors, people are
wary of speaking out and the generals have decreed the country isn?t
ready to face the subversion of the Internet. However, compared to the
socialist disaster zone Ne Win bequeathed to his successors in 1988,
Myanmar has come a very long way.

That is not good enough for the US and the EU which have imposed
economic sanctions against Myanmar, accusing it of heinous crimes
ranging from the suppression of democracy to drug peddling and slave
labour. Last year, US human-rights campaigners successfully pressured
oil-services provider Baker Hughes to sell out its stake in the Mann oil
fields project in northern Myanmar. Last April, the oil company Premier
was advised by the British Foreign Office to end all commercial ties
with the ?disgraceful regime? in Myanmar. Spurring the activist groups
is the open encouragement to international sanctions by the opposition
leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, now under house
arrest in Yangon.

In public discourse, Suu Kyi is a non-person in Myanmar. At best, she is
referred to tangentially as ?the lady? and her National League for
Democracy is nowhere in sight. Despite her credentials as the daughter
of Aung San, the father of Burmese nationalism, Suu Kyi?s claim to lead
Myanmar to a democratic paradise on the strength of the 1990 elections,
is fiercely resisted by the present ruling establishment.

As a Christian who was married to a Briton, the 55-year-old Suu Kyi is
not above the majority Burman community?s traditional fear of the
foreign hand. This fear is partly grounded in Myanmar?s humiliating
experience of colonialism?British soldiers repeatedly entered the
Shwedagon pagoda with their boots on and transformed the Mandalay Palace
into an officers? club. But equally, it is centred on the Buddhist fear
of a Christian-led cultural transformation of the country. Myanmar
nationalism sees the hand of missionaries behind the alienation and
separatism of minority ethnic groups like the Karens, Kachins and Shans.
Suu Kyi has tried to allay misgivings by also speaking of a
?traditional Burmese nationalism arising from Burma?s cultural
homogeneity? but the fear of democratization being followed by an
assault on Buddhism and the country?s territorial integrity persists.
Her faith in international pressure on the military regime merely
reinforce existing prejudices.

Along with this heightened cultural wariness, there is the fear of the
marginalistion of the military. Unlike India, Myanmar didn?t have a mass
nationalist movement. Aung San and his 30 Comrades effected the
liberation of the country in 1942 by riding piggyback on the invading
Japanese. Thereafter, it was a hastily cobbled army that functioned as
both a political party and militia. The opposition too developed in the
guise of armed, ethnic separatists. A democratic culture never struck
roots.

After a long spell in isolation, Suu Kyi apperars to have recognized
this. For the first time since 1996, she has begun talking with
Lt-General Khin Nyunt, Secretary-1 of the SPDC, through the good offices
of UN Special Envoy Razali Ismail. Both sides have maintained a media
silence but as a gesture of goodwill the Government has dropped its
public denunciation of Suu Kyi. The idea is to lessen the animosity.
With ASEAN pressing for a solution, there are whispers of a rift within
the military over the future course (see box). According to senior
officials in Yangon, there is a blueprint of a quasi-federal
constitution that confers autonomy to the non-Burman states but
institutionalizes the role of the Tatmadaw. The ball, they say, is in
Suu Kyi?s court.

There is a deceptive calm in Myanmar today that could well vindicate
Paul Theroux? naughty aside that ?Nothing happens in Burma but then
nothing is expected to happen?. Underneath the surface, however, the
winds of change are unmistakable. Pro-government notables, with strong
links to the Buddhist clergy, talk of ?consolidation?, the
oppositionists speak of ?reconciliation?. The difference isn?t purely
semantic but the gap is no longer unbridgeable. Exiled Thintbawa editor
Tin Maung Than?s observation in the Bangkok-based Irrawaddy reflects the
new mood: ?The military is part of our body, whether it is good or bad.
The opposition is also part of our body, whether good or bad. We should
be kind to ourselves as a country.?

That?s a sentiment the conflict-weary Myanmarese would readily endorse.
If only they are allowed to, without becoming a part of a new great game
involving the US and China.

Military Balance

Though it is sending peace feelers, there is a tussle in the armed
forces on the future course

IN THE ABSENCE OF OPENNESS. Yangon-watching has been elevated into an
art form, in much the same way Kremlin-watching was 30 years ago.
Inevitably, much of the recent speculation centers on a power struggle
in the military over the succession to Than Shwe.

Curiously, Than Shwe is not the focus. Despite rumours of ill health,
the 68-years-old senior general is alert and in total command. He
actively participated in the talks with India?s External Affairs
Minister Jaswant Singh on February 15 and spoke on a range of subjects
without notes. The suggestion that he will abruptly relinquish power on
health grounds seems somewhat far-fetched.

At the root of the speculation is a bid by Aung San Suu Kyi to exploit
contradictions in the army. In particular, a wellpublicised rivalry
between SPDC Vice-Chairman General Maung Aye and Secretary-1 Lt-general
Khin Nyunt. In the assessment of Analytica Birmanie, a Burma-watch
newsletter, it is? a war between those with brawn and elements that
possess a lot of brain and craftiness?.

The contrast is striking. As head of military intelligence and the
architect of the cease-fire with ethnic insurgent groups, Khin Nyunt has
held confidence-building negotiations with Suu Kyi. The talks have made
progress and Suu Kyi reportedly told an EU delegation of her
satisfaction with Khin Nyunt. Pro-opposition publications in Thailand
have painted Khin Nyunt as a reformer who enjoys the confidence of
westernized army officers, intellectuals, businessman and, most
important, China. In short, someone who could be a bridge between the
military and the opposition.

In the other corner is Maung Aye, a Buddhist traditionalist enjoying the
full backing of the army. Maung Aye is said to have consolidated his
position last year following trips to India, China and Laos. Wary of
appeasing ethnic insurgents he has been very supportive of India?s
cross-border problems. Once the clear favourite to succeed Than Shwe,
Maung Aye?s ascendancy has raised the hackles of both China and the
West, a reason why Suu Kyi is being encouraged to dabble in
intra-military intrigues.

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<html>

<center>Stillness of Change
After prolonged isolation. Yangaon
wants to face the world on its own terms. Will it be allowed to?</center>

From India Today magazine (New Delhi)
 March 5, 2001
By Swapan DASGUPTA in Yangon
Adjoining The main entrance to the Mandalay Fort, Ding
Mindon?s stunning Golden City that was the seat of royal power from 1861
to 1885, is a large hoarding that is striking in its incongruity. ?The
Tatmadaw shall never betray the national cause,? it proclaims. The Tatmadaw,
for the uninitiated, is the armed forces, the guiding light of Myanmar
since General Ne Win seized power in 1962.
On the face of it, the Tatmadaw is an invisible force,
more prominent in western media reports than on the streets of Mandalay
and capital city Yangon. There are no uniformed intruders to either distract
the awfully courteous shopkeepers selling rubies, jade and handicrafts
for dollars in Yangon?s Bogyoke Market (formerly the Scott Market) or intimidate
the rows of second-hand booksellers on 37th Street. A teeming metropolis
that is part Mumbai, part Kolkata and part Colombo, Yangon blends the glitzy
market economy with the oriental bazaar. The roadside food stalls are enveloped
in a familiar smell of pickled fish but the five-star hotels are a picture
of sanitized orderliness. There is no fixed price for goods and hard bargaining
is part of a time-honoured ritual, particularly for tourists who can breeze
through the country without negotiation the uncertainties of wildly negotiable
multiple exchange rates.
The legendary bamboo curtain and a prolonged spell of
isolation notwith-standing, Myanmar just isn?t another North Korea. There
is laughter in the streets, pesky child monks needling tourists for alms
and a very un-sub-continental orderliness of traffic. There are no portraits
of Senior-General Than Shwe watching over people and there is no ban on
cable television. English is back as a language of instruction, cricket
is making a cautious comeback among the Indians and, for the enterprising,
there are megabucks to be made.
?Business is good,? gloats U Maung Shwe, a Yangon businessman
who works closely with the Ministry of Commerce. His real name is B.L.
Goenka, a third generation Marwari settled in Myanmar. He is reported to
be close to Lt-General Tin Oo, the Secretary-2 of the ruling State Peace
and Development Council (SPDC) who was reportedly killed in a helicopter
crash last week. Goenka may be the archetypal man for all occasions but
even those who lack his formidable connections aren?t exactly unhappy.
Yangon?s Indian community no longer makes up 58 per cent of the population
it did in 1948 but 25 Durga pujas are still held each year in the city.
The anti-Indian feeling that formed a subtext of early Burmese nationalism
has virtually evaporated.
Myanmar isn?t perfect but it isn?t quite the ?fascist
Disneyland? that concerned human-rights bodies have made it out to be.
There is an overdose of olive green military uniforms in the SPDC hierarchy,
the non-official media wage a guerrilla war with the censors, people are
wary of speaking out and the generals have decreed the country isn?t ready
to face the subversion of the Internet. However, compared to the socialist
disaster zone Ne Win bequeathed to his successors in 1988, Myanmar has
come a very long way.
That is not good enough for the US and the EU which have
imposed economic sanctions against Myanmar, accusing it of heinous crimes
ranging from the suppression of democracy to drug peddling and slave labour.
Last year, US human-rights campaigners successfully pressured oil-services
provider Baker Hughes to sell out its stake in the Mann oil fields project
in northern Myanmar. Last April, the oil company Premier was advised by
the British Foreign Office to end all commercial ties with the ?disgraceful
regime? in Myanmar. Spurring the activist groups is the open encouragement
to international sanctions by the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize
winner Aung San Suu Kyi, now under house arrest in Yangon.
In public discourse, Suu Kyi is a non-person in Myanmar.
At best, she is referred to tangentially as ?the lady? and her National
League for Democracy is nowhere in sight. Despite her credentials as the
daughter of Aung San, the father of Burmese nationalism, Suu Kyi?s claim
to lead Myanmar to a democratic paradise on the strength of the 1990 elections,
is fiercely resisted by the present ruling establishment.
As a Christian who was married to a Briton, the 55-year-old
Suu Kyi is not above the majority Burman community?s traditional fear of
the foreign hand. This fear is partly grounded in Myanmar?s humiliating
experience of colonialism?British soldiers repeatedly entered the Shwedagon
pagoda with their boots on and transformed the Mandalay Palace into an
officers? club. But equally, it is centred on the Buddhist fear of a Christian-led
cultural transformation of the country. Myanmar nationalism sees the hand
of missionaries behind the alienation and separatism of minority ethnic
groups like the Karens, Kachins and Shans. Suu&nbsp; Kyi has tried to allay
misgivings by also speaking of a ?traditional Burmese nationalism arising
from Burma?s cultural homogeneity? but the fear of democratization being
followed by an assault on Buddhism and the country?s territorial integrity
persists. Her faith in international pressure on the military regime merely
reinforce existing prejudices.
Along with this heightened cultural wariness, there is
the fear of the marginalistion of the military. Unlike India, Myanmar didn?t
have a mass nationalist movement. Aung San and his 30 Comrades effected
the liberation of the country in 1942 by riding piggyback on the invading
Japanese. Thereafter, it was a hastily cobbled army that functioned as
both a political party and militia. The opposition too developed in the
guise of armed, ethnic separatists. A democratic culture never struck roots.
After a long spell in isolation, Suu Kyi apperars to have
recognized this. For the first time since 1996, she has begun talking with
Lt-General Khin Nyunt, Secretary-1 of the SPDC, through the good offices
of UN Special Envoy Razali Ismail. Both sides have maintained a media silence
but as a gesture of goodwill the Government has dropped its public denunciation
of Suu Kyi. The idea is to lessen the animosity. With ASEAN pressing for
a solution, there are whispers of a rift within the military over the future
course (see box). According to senior officials in Yangon, there is a blueprint
of a quasi-federal constitution that confers autonomy to the non-Burman
states but institutionalizes the role of the Tatmadaw. The ball, they say,
is in Suu Kyi?s court.
There is a deceptive calm in Myanmar today that could
well vindicate Paul Theroux? naughty aside that ?Nothing happens in Burma
but then nothing is expected to happen?. Underneath the surface, however,
the winds of change are unmistakable. Pro-government notables, with strong
links to the Buddhist clergy, talk of ?consolidation?, the oppositionists
speak of ?reconciliation?. The difference isn?t purely semantic but the
gap is no longer unbridgeable. Exiled Thintbawa editor Tin Maung Than?s
observation in the Bangkok-based Irrawaddy reflects the new mood: ?The
military is part of our body, whether it is good or bad. The opposition
is also part of our body, whether good or bad. We should be kind to ourselves
as a country.?
That?s a sentiment the conflict-weary Myanmarese would
readily endorse. If only they are allowed to, without becoming a part of
a new great game involving the US and China.
 &nbsp;
 
<center>
Military Balance
Though it is sending peace feelers,
there is a tussle in the armed forces on the future course</center>

IN THE ABSENCE OF OPENNESS. Yangon-watching has been elevated
into an art form, in much the same way Kremlin-watching was 30 years ago.
Inevitably, much of the recent speculation centers on a power struggle
in the military over the succession to Than Shwe.
Curiously, Than Shwe is not the focus. Despite rumours
of ill health, the 68-years-old senior general is alert and in total command.
He actively participated in the talks with India?s External Affairs Minister
Jaswant Singh on February 15 and spoke on a range of subjects without notes.
The suggestion that he will abruptly relinquish power on health grounds
seems somewhat far-fetched.
At the root of the speculation is a bid by Aung San Suu
Kyi to exploit contradictions in the army. In particular, a wellpublicised
rivalry between SPDC Vice-Chairman General Maung Aye and Secretary-1 Lt-general
Khin Nyunt. In the assessment of Analytica Birmanie, a Burma-watch newsletter,
it is? a war between those with brawn and elements that possess a lot of
brain and craftiness?.
The contrast is striking. As head of military intelligence
and the architect of the cease-fire with ethnic insurgent groups, Khin
Nyunt has held confidence-building negotiations with Suu Kyi. The talks
have made progress and Suu Kyi reportedly told an EU delegation of her
satisfaction with Khin Nyunt. Pro-opposition publications in Thailand have
painted Khin Nyunt as a reformer who enjoys the confidence of westernized
army officers, intellectuals, businessman and, most important, China. In
short, someone who could be a bridge between the military and the opposition.
In the other corner is Maung Aye, a Buddhist traditionalist
enjoying the full backing of the army. Maung Aye is said to have consolidated
his position last year following trips to India, China and Laos. Wary of
appeasing ethnic insurgents he has been very supportive of India?s cross-border
problems. Once the clear favourite to succeed Than Shwe, Maung Aye?s ascendancy
has raised the hackles of both China and the West, a reason why Suu Kyi
is being encouraged to dabble in intra-military intrigues.
 &nbsp;
&nbsp;</html>

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