Mission Highlights: • During the 2008 monsoon season, agricultural production suffered a significant decline in areas severely affected by Cyclone Nargis, as a result of poor quality seeds, salinity and iron toxicity, lack of agricultural labour and draught animals. Compared to the previous year, average paddy production is estimated to have decreased by 32 percent in 7 affected townships in the Ayeyarwady Division and by 35 percent in 3 affected townships of Yangon Division. At the divisional level, 2008 monsoon paddy output was down by 13 percent in Ayeyarwady, and 9 percent in Yangon. • Overall, aggretate food production in Myanmar is satisfactory, with positive outputs expected in most states/divisions, reflecting favourable weather and increasing use of F1 and HYV rice seeds. The Mission forecasts a 2008/09 (2008 monsoon and 2009 summer) cereal output of 21 million tonnes (rice at 19.8 million tonnes, maize at 1.11 million tonnes, and wheat at 0.147 million tonnes), 3.2 percent below the previous year, but approximately 10 percent above the five-year average. Cereal exports are expected to be high, with estimated rice exports of 477 000 tonnes and maize exports of 159 000 tonnes conversely, up to 64 000 tonnes of wheat are expected to be imported. • The cyclone-related damage to the livestock and fishing sectors in the Ayeyarwady Delta will continue to affect food supply and income generation in 2008/09. • Rats have damaged 685 hectares of rice and 400 hectares of maize in 121 villages of Chin State;localized food insecurity in these villages is expected. • Despite the increase in international rice prices, paddy prices in Myanmar remained low in 2008 due to domestic market and trade barriers. These low prices, combined with the rising cost of fertilizer and other major inputs, have significantly reduced farmers? incentives profits, and may have negatively impacted agricultural productivity and the country?s agricultural exports. • The Mission received reports of high levels of malnutrition in northern Rakhine State and recommends that a joint UNICEF and WFP food security and nutrition survey be conducted to verify these reports and to plan appropriate interventions, if needed. • In areas with high percentages of food insecure and vulnerable populations, defined as people living below the food poverty line, baseline surveys are required to measure food security, vulnerability, and nutrition, and plan appropriate interventions. Chin and Rakhine States are of the highest priority for baseline surveys. • There are more than 5 million people below the food poverty line in Myanmar. States/divisions which the Mission found to be a priority for emergency food assistance are: cyclone-affected areas of Ayeyarwady Division (85 000 tonnes); Chin State (23 000 tonnes), particularly those areas affected by the rat infestation; Rakhine State (15 000 tonnes), particularly the north of the State; Kachin State (8 300 tonnes); north Shan State (20 200 tonnes); east Shan State (7 000 tonnes); and Magwe Division (27 500 tonnes). Most of the food commodities can be procured locally, with only a limited requirement for imported food aid. • The Mission recommends the following agricultural assistance in cyclone-affected Ayeyarwady and Yangon Divisions: distribution of seeds for the coming summer and next monsoon planting seasons; distribution of draught animals adapted to local climatic conditions; distribution of other livestock for increased meat availability; distribution of hand tractors with training on their usage and maintenance; distribution of fishing equipment; re-establishment of ice production plants; and training in boat-building, net-making and on drafting of fishery laws. • The Mission recommends the following actions in regard to national food policies: set up a market information and food security warning system; develop balanced food production and trade policies for both producers and consumers; remove domestic market/trade barriers; and improve market integration.