"We have a paper out in Nature titled ?Greater future global warming inferred from Earth?s recent energy budget”. The Carnegie press release can be found here and Coverage from the Washington Post can be found here. A video abstract summarizing the study is below...The study addresses one of the key questions in climate science: How much global warming should we expect for a given increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases?...[I] we were to assume that humans will continue to increases greenhouse gas emissions substantially throughout the 21st century (the RCP8.5 future emissions scenario), climate models tell us that we can expect anywhere from about 3.2°C to 5.9°C (5.8°F to 10.6°F) of global warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This means that for identical changes in greenhouse gas concentrations (more technically, identical changes in radiative forcing), climate models simulate a range of global warming that differs by almost a factor of 2...Using the steepest future emissions scenario as an example (the RCP8.5 emissions scenario), the figure below shows the comparison of the raw-model projections used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to our projections that incorporate information from observations..."