"There was a flurry of articles last week about how Japan plans to suspend, or in fact suspended, economic aid (ODA: Official Development Assistance, which is comprised mainly of yen loans, grants and technical assistance) to Burma, thereby stepping up the pressure on the military junta to release Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Most news reports say that the aid that is being frozen is further, or new, ODA. Given that Japan has long pursued an engagement policy with Burma, and is the largest provider of economic aid to Burma (2.1 billion yen of grants-in-aid was provided in fiscal year 2002), a suspension would carry a certain weight with the military regime. ...Japan?s engagement policy with Burma has always been based on a �gcarrot and stick�h approach, which traditionally has involved far more "carrots" than �gstick.�h Notwithstanding the uncertainties surrounding the suspension of new ODA, Japan?s freeze is a rare, and probably short-term, application of a �gstick.�h The Japanese government�fs preference has been, and will continue to be, for �gcarrots,�h a posture that is due in part to apparent concern about China replacing Japan as a likely source of economic assistance to, and political influence on, Burma. In this context, therefore, it is essential that governments and non-governmental groups monitor Japan?s Burma policy -- and be wary of overly optimistic or inaccurate news accounts concerning that policy. There is little doubt that, without pressure from other countries (notably the U.S.) and interested citizens, even a decision to suspend new ODA would likely have been much slower in coming. Such pressure must continue."