Description:
CONCLUSION:
"As the Obama administration is keen to support Thein Sein?s dual project of political reconciliation and
economic reforms, with China?s rise clearly in mind, the geopolitical competition over Myanmar between
Washington and Beijing is set to intensify. The present US role in Myanmar?s political and economic reforms
will in all likelihood lead in the future to a greatly expanded presence in the country. By comparison, China?s
often much exaggerated political hold over Naypyidaw has taken a knock with US-Myanmar rapprochement.
Its significant economic presence in Myanmar will continue, however. Significantly, far from pulling back, the
Chinese leadership also seems eager to continue to boost the bilateral relationship with Naypyidaw, which
will probably prompt more rounds of competition for greater influence between Beijing and Washington
concerning Myanmar.
By normalising relations with Washington, Naypyidaw will have gone some way to restoring the balance
historically favoured in Myanmar?s external relations. To progress with its domestic reform agenda, the Thein
Sein government seems committed both to warmer relations with Washington as well as pursuing the
comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership it agreed with China. However, evidence suggests that the
Thein Sein government knows it will need to carefully manage the attention and interest from both Beijing
and Washington.
Finally, one should not assume that developments in Myanmar over the next three years will necessarily
amount to an entirely smooth political transition. So far the NLD has been the major beneficiary in party
political terms from the present process of reconciliation long urged by Washington. With the political future
of representatives and officials of the previous regime possibly in doubt, there is at least the question over
how much internal pressure the President will yet face and be able to resist regarding a possible recalibration
of the current political course and concessions in the name of national reconciliation. In turn, the resulting
decisions of this process are likely to affect Nypyidaw?s relationship with Washington and Beijing."
Source/publisher:
London School of Economics (LSE)
Date of Publication:
2012-11-00
Date of entry:
2013-05-31
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
Category:
Language:
English