SUMMARY: "• Myanmar?s transition from military rule to democracy is far from complete, and its successes to date remain fragile. Given the chronic inertia and isolation of the previous half-century, there has been remarkable progress since 2011. But more work is needed to consolidate democracy, improve governance and promote stability. • Legislative elections due by the end of 2015 promise to be pivotal for the country?s political development. The elections are likely to be the freest in decades, but the opportunity for constitutional reform ahead of the polls appears to have been missed. • A political compromise between the military-dominated Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) no longer looks feasible before the elections. • Ceasefires with ethnic minorities in recent years have improved the security situation, but a national peace settlement has proven elusive. Armed groups may prefer to await the outcome of the elections rather than negotiate with the current government. • Sectarian rivalry and the legacy of prolonged government neglect are fuelling continued instability in Rakhine state. Domestic and international actors must address the crisis in the state urgently, or risk the emergence of a situation that threatens national unity as well as regional stability.".....CONCLUSION: A CRITICAL YEAR: "Myanmar faces enormous challenges, with the elections at the end of the year likely to be a turning point in its history. They could herald a new era that sees a diminishing role for the military, better relations with the outside world ? including the West ? and a country at peace with itself and embracing its many minorities. There are other futures too. A reform process that stumbles badly is clearly imaginable ? not least over the position of Aung San Suu Kyi in national life; ceasefires that do not hold with increasingly restless minorities; and the emergence of Rakhine state as potentially a new flashpoint in a rising global Islamist agenda. These dangers are all too real. In all likelihood Myanmar will find itself caught between these two scenarios. The elections will almost certainly proceed; abandoning reform is simply not an option now, even for military hardliners. Although much of institutional life is still dominated by the military, a real politics has emerged in Myanmar in recent years. Any attempt to put the democratic genie back in the bottle is unlikely. But the potential for unrest, and even violence, remains considerable. At the same time, other Southeast Asian histories offer alternative possibilities. While the military appears to be firmly back in charge in neighbouring Thailand, Indonesia has evolved into one of the more robust democracies in Southeast Asia. In doing so, the country has overcome a toxic legacy of 33 years of military rule (from 1965 to 1998) and has successfully fended off threats of internal secession and Islamist extremism. Indonesia?s example is one that many in Myanmar still hope their country can follow."