Description:
Overview: "The 8 November elections were a major waypoint in Myanmar?s transition from authoritarian rule. Holding a peaceful, orderly vote in a context of little experience of
electoral democracy, deep political fissures and ongoing armed conflict in several
areas was a major achievement for all political actors, the election commission and
the country as a whole. The victorious National League for Democracy (NLD) needs
to use the four-month transitional period before it takes power at the end of March
2016 wisely, identifying key appointees early so that they have as much time as possible to prepare for the substantial challenges ahead.
Its landslide victory, with almost 80 per cent of the elected seats, means Nobel
Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi?s party will have an outright majority in both
legislative chambers, even after the 25 per cent of unelected seats held by the armed
forces is taken into account. This will give it control of law-making and the power to
choose the president ? a position that the constitution bars Suu Kyi from taking herself. The incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) suffered a
crushing defeat, as did most parties
representing minority ethnic groups.
The vote represents a huge popular mandate for Aung San Suu Kyi and comes with
equally high expectations that she and the NLD will deliver the needed political and
economic changes. It will not be easy to meet those expectations. First, Suu Kyi will
have to build a constructive working relationship with Commander-in-Chief Min Aung
Hlaing. The military retains considerable executive power, with control of the defence,
home affairs and border affairs ministries. Success in everything from the peace process to police reform and further political
liberalisation will depend on the cooperation of the armed forces. With longstanding mutual suspicions, that relationship could
easily get off to a bad start, particularly if Suu Kyi chooses a proxy president without
the credibility and stature required for the
top job, as she has suggested she would.
Beyond this, the NLD will want to demonstrate that it can meet the expectations
of the people by bringing tangible changes to their lives. It can tap into enormous
domestic and international goodwill and support, but its limited experience of government, a shallow pool of skilled technocrats and the difficulty of reforming key
institutions all constrain how much can be achieved quickly. This is particularly important given that the party has done very little policy development work to date.
It also may prove difficult for the new administration to focus on producing positive changes, given the range of problems
the country faces, any of which have the
potential to spawn crises. Serious armed clashes continue in Shan and Kachin states,
threatening to undermine a fragile peace process. There are signs of macro-economic
turbulence, with weak policy tools available
to mitigate it. And the situation in Rakhine
state, where most Muslim Rohingya were disenfranchised, is intractable and potentially volatile; any moves the NLD government makes on this issue will come under
particular nationalist scrutiny.
There will also be international relations challenges. Suu Kyi and the NLD will
need deft diplomatic skills to steer Myanmar?s continuing re-engagement with the
West, while maintaining good relations with
a more assertive China concerned that
its interests are being harmed. They will have to be particularly adroit, given perceptions that they have an inherent pro-Western bias. Western countries must do their
part to help make this rebalancing succeed. They have an important role to play in
supporting positive change in Myanmar but need to be cognizant of domestic and
regional sensitivities involved."
Source/publisher:
International Crisis Group (Asia Briefing N°147)
Date of Publication:
2015-12-09
Date of entry:
2016-01-07
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
Category:
Language:
English
Local URL:
Format:
pdf pdf
Size:
355.23 KB 550.11 KB