Contents: 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Context 1 1.2 Results Phase 1 3 1.3 Proposal for phase 2 4 1.4 Undertaken activities 5 1.5 Guide to this report 6 2 Methodology 7 2.1 Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment 7 2.2 Stakeholder participation and multi-criteria analyses 10 2.2.1 Introduction to the stakeholders participation and multi-criteria analyses 10 2.2.2 Methodology 11 3 Base Layer 14 3.1 Description current situation 14 3.1.1 Geographical Situation 14 3.1.2 Climatic Conditions 15 3.1.3 Soils and Sediment 15 3.1.4 Subsidence (natural or human-induced) 15 3.1.5 Water resources 16 3.1.5.1 River system 16 3.1.5.2 Drinking water resources 17 3.1.5.3 Water resources for agriculture 18 3.1.5.4 Water resources for fisheries and aquaculture 19 3.1.5.5 Surface water quality and pollution 20 3.1.5.6 Groundwater 22 3.1.6 Flood hazard in the Ayeyarwady Delta 22 3.1.6.1 Types of floods 23 3.1.6.2 Historical riverine floods 24 3.1.6.3 Coastal floods by cyclones and storm surges / Cyclone Nargis 26 3.1.7 Tsunami?s 26 3.1.8 Salinity intrusion 27 3.1.9 Coastal and river bank erosion 28 3.1.10 Nature and Wetlands 28 3.1.10.1 Mangrove forests 28 3.1.10.2 Functions of mangroves 29 3.1.10.3 Degradation of the mangroves in the Ayeyarwady Delta 30 3.2 Drivers of change 32 3.2.1 Climate change (temperature, precipitation, sea level rise) 34 3.2.2 Subsidence (natural or human-induced) 36 3.2.3 Research gaps 36 3.3 Pressures 37 4 Network Layer 42 4.1 Description current situation 42 4.1.1 Importance of the network layer 42 4.1.2 Roads, ports and waterways in Myanmar 42 4.1.3 Polders: Embankments, Sluices and Drainage System 43 Full Assessment of the Vulnerability and Resilience of the Ayeyarwady Delta Delta Alliance - GWP / BOBLME project v 4.1.4 Irrigation infrastructure 44 4.1.5 Energy 45 4.1.6 Drinking water supply systems 45 4.2 Drivers of change 46 4.3 Pressures 48 5 Occupation layer 51 5.1 Description current situation 51 5.1.1 Population 51 5.1.2 Political Changes/History in Delta Management 51 5.1.3 Economic Development 52 5.1.4 Agriculture 52 5.1.4.1 Importance of the Agricultural Sector 52 5.1.4.2 Farm size and high percentage of landless people in the Delta 53 5.1.4.3 Problems on Livelihood and Income Sources 54 5.1.4.4 Land acquisition 54 5.1.4.5 Cropping patterns 56 5.1.4.6 Crop Yields and Prices 57 5.1.4.7 Irrigation development 58 5.1.4.8 Agricultural Practices 62 5.1.4.9 Agricultural credit 63 5.1.4.10 Agricultural Damage by Cyclone Nargis 64 5.1.4.11 Constraints for Farming 64 5.1.5 Fisheries and aquaculture 65 5.1.5.1 Fisheries important for livelihood 65 5.1.5.2 Fish consumption in Myanmar 67 5.1.5.3 Zoning of fishery and aquacultural activities 67 5.1.5.4 Impact of cyclone Nargis 69 5.1.5.5 Fishing practices and developments 69 5.1.5.6 Capture Fisheries 70 5.1.5.7 Fishing Gears in the Delta. 72 5.1.5.8 Aquaculture 74 5.1.5.9 Production and fisheries values chains 76 5.1.5.10 Constraints for the fishery and aquaculture sector 79 5.1.5.11 Research on fisheries and aquaculture: MYFish project 81 5.1.6 Industry 82 5.2 Drivers of change 83 5.3 Pressures 84 6 Governance 90 6.1 Administrative system 91 6.1.1 Land and water management 91 6.2 Governance 93 6.2.1 Key trends in governance. 93 6.2.2 Implications of the trends for policy and for developments cooperation 94 7 Results from the stakeholders participation and multi-criteria analyses 96 8 Vulnerability assessment and score card assessment 105 9 Overview of adaptive measures in the Ayeyarwady Delta 112 vi Full Assessment of the Vulnerability and Resilience of the Ayeyarwady Delta Delta Alliance - GWP / BOBLME project 9.1 Flood management at national level 112 9.2 Disaster Risk Reduction and flood mitigation in Myanmar 112 9.3 Disaster Risk Reduction in the ASEAN region 114 9.4 Forest conservation and restoration 115 9.5 Early Forecasting, Warning Systems and Mitigation Measures 115 9.6 Adaptive measures mentioned in the NAPA 117 10Overview of technical methods and tools to support delta management and development in the Ayeyarwady Delta 124 11Knowledge gaps 125 12Comparative assessment of 14 deltas including Ayeyarwady 127 12.1 The 14 deltas assessed 127 12.2 Drivers of change 127 12.3 Pressures 128 12.3.1 Base layer (Natural resources) 128 12.3.2 Network layer (Infrastructure) 129 12.3.3 Occupation layer (land and water use) 130 12.4 Governance 131 12.5 Adaptive measures 131 12.6 Comparison of delta score cards 132 12.7 Research gaps and opportunities for knowledge exchange and collaboration 134 13Summary of Findings 137 14References 138 Annex A: Comparative assessment of 14 deltas 147 Annex B: Main indicators for drivers, pressures and governance 148