ဖော်ပြချက်/အကြောင်းအရာ:
"...Since 1990, most Western governments have taken a
self-consciously principled approach to Myanmar,
applying coercive diplomacy and economic
sanctions in an effort to force the military
government to implement the results of the multiparty
election held that year. The 30 May 2003
attack on Aung San Suu Kyi and her followers
increased both political pressure and justification for
strengthening this approach. However, the military
government today is more entrenched and more
recalcitrant than when it took power. The prodemocratic
opposition -- although it maintains broad
popular support -- has lost much of its momentum,
and international actors have demonstrably failed to
protect even Aung San Suu Kyi, not to speak of less
prominent figures, from persecution. Meanwhile, the
socio-economic conditions for a majority of the
population have greatly deteriorated. In short, things
are moving the wrong way.
The much gentler 'engagement' policy embraced by
most of Myanmar's Asian neighbours for most of the
period of military rule has been equally unproductive.
In the absence of any external pressure at all for
change, it is highly unlikely that any change at all will
occur.
The people of Myanmar need greater say in the
governance of their country. The failure of 40 years
of military rule to provide human welfare and
security consonant with the country's great natural
potential is closely linked to the absence of popular
participation in decision-making. For now, however,
the configuration of power and interests inside the
country are not conducive to major, quick change --
and there are no "magic bullets", no realistic policy
options that can change that. In such circumstances,
efforts are required to change political, social and
economic realities over a longer period in ways that
would facilitate better governance and the gradual
introduction and consolidation of genuinely democratic
institutions.
That is only likely to happen if coercive measures
are allied to a more flexible, intensive and sustained
diplomatic strategy that does not in any way
embrace the military government, but rather includes
a greater willingness to pursue some half-measures,
small steps and even limited cooperation in order to
begin to move the country forward while protecting
those who suffer under the status quo or might be
hurt by future reforms. International objectives have
to be rethought, new benchmarks for change
adopted, a more supportive approach toward
creating a positive internal climate of change
adopted, and more support given to the UN in its
important mediation and facilitation role.
The road map put forward by the SPDC and
realignments within the military government offer a
sign of movement, slight though it may be, in the
political situation. This provides an opportunity to
encourage progress and should not be dismissed out
of hand. Any government or institution that deals
with Myanmar needs to maintain an acute sense of
the realities of the country: change is often painfully
slow and easily reversed, the military is an intensely
difficult institution with which to deal, and outside
influence on any of the actors is very limited.
The international community should take whatever
opportunity is presented to encourage whatever
progress is possible. That means developing a new
policy approach -- containing elements of the
present sanctions approach of the West and
engagement policy of the region, but more
productive than either -- that brings together
international actors rather than divides them, creates
an environment for change in the country and offers
a way out for all parties that has a chance of being
accepted..."
ရင်းမြစ်:
International Crisis Group (ICG)
Date of Publication:
2004-04-26
Date of entry:
2004-04-26
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
အကြောင်းအရာ/အမျိုးအစား:
Language:
English